Politics
who will control the u.s. House and Senate in 2023?
Photo by MIKE STOLL on Unsplash
by APM RESEARCH LAB STAFF | Last updated Jan. 4, 2023
Note: Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has announced that she is leaving the Democratic Party and will register as an independent. Early Reporting by POLITICO indicated that she would not caucus with Republicans, and more recent reporting by NPR suggests that she will not officially caucus with Democrats. As noted below, two other independent senators—Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine—currently caucus with the Democrats. For now Sinema is counted among Democrats in the tabulations below.
Sen. Raphael Warnock’s victory over Republican challenger Herschel Walker in Georgia’s Dec. 6 runoff election solidified Democrat’s continued control of the U.S. Senate. Earlier results of this November’s elections flipped control of the incoming membership of the 2023 U.S. House of Representatives to Republicans. Thus, this year’s close election resulted in divided governance between the two bodies of Congress.
This November 35 Senate seats were up for election, as were all 435 seats in the House of Representatives. Party control of both chambers was up for grabs. Prior to the election both the U.S. House and Senate were controlled by Democratic majorities.
This year’s election outcomes are shown in the graphics below, along with the the historical balance of power for both the Senate and the House going back to 2000.
U.S. Senate
When Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s race was called in her favor four days after election day, Democrats officially retained control of the incoming class of the U.S. Senate. This was further solidified when Sen. Raphael Warnock was reelected to his seat in Georgia’s runoff election—appeared to give Democrats a 51 to 49 margin in the incoming 2023 Senate.
Days later, however, Arizona Sen. Krysten Sinema declared herself as as independent, changing the composition of the incoming class to 50 caucusing with Democrats (including Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine), 49 caucusing with Republicans and one independent (Sinema). Democrats retain majority control even without Sinema’s vote—and she has stated that she intends to keep a similar approach to the past, where her voting has favored positions held by Democrats.
Thirty-five of the chamber’s 100 seats were up for election. Since Republicans only needed to pick up one seat to gain a majority, and since the party in control of the White House typically loses seats in Congress during midterm elections, it was very possible that control of the Senate would change hands.
Prior to the election, there were more Republicans (50) than Democrats (48) in the U.S. Senate. But two independent senators—Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine—caucus with the Democrats, giving them the majority since Vice President Kamala Harris has a constitutionally-appointed tie-breaking vote. Both Sanders and King will remain in the Senate in 2023.
U.S. House of Representatives
As of Wednesday, Nov. 16 Republicans officially gained the control of the 2023 U.S. House as incumbent Republican Mike Garcia was declared victorious in California’s House District 27—the 218th seat filled by the GOP in this fall’s election.
As Dec. 13, incumbent Republican Lauren Boebert was declared victorious over Democrat Adam Frisch in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, giving Republicans 222 wins in this fall’s election, compare to 213 for Democrats. On Nov. 28 Virginia Rep. Donald McEachin (D) passed away after his recent reelection, leaving the House with one vacant seat and membership in the incoming Democratic caucus at 212. A special election to fill that seat is scheduled for Feb. 21, 2023.
Prior to the 2022 election, the House was controlled by Democrats, who held an eight-seat margin among the 433 currently filled voting seats (two seats were vacant). All 435 voting seats as well as five of the six non-voting seats were up for election.
Republicans needed to pick up five seats to gain majority, and this was entirely possible for a variety of reasons, including that the party in control of the White House typically loses seats in Congress during midterm elections. Additionally, the redrawing of most U.S. House districts following the decennial census contributed to the possibility for change.
Note: The first figure in this article was corrected on Nov. 11. A previous version inadvertently flipped which party had majority control in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives in 2011-12, 2013-14, and 2019-20.