By the Census: Increasingly metropolitan and diverse population foreshadows United States’ future

by KATHERINE SYPHER | Sept. 13, 2021

Editor’s note: This article is part of a collaboration between APM Research Lab and the Ten Across initiative, housed at Arizona State University.

After being delayed for months because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the results of the 2020 census are finally here.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 results confirm their earlier projections: the nation is growing, though slower than it used to, and getting older and more diverse. And as redistricting efforts get underway, the new numbers stand to influence voting and political power for the decade to come.

These impacts are especially visible in the Ten Across region—which comprises California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

The population of the Ten Across region is growing – fast

Populations of states in the South and West are growing, according to the census, particularly in metropolitan areas, and these changes were in large part driven by populations of color.

Between 2010 and 2020, the population of the United States grew by 7.4%. In the Ten Across region, the population grew by 10%, according to an APM Research Lab analysis.

The adult population of the West grew the fastest of any region between 2010 and 2020, by 13%. The South added over 11 million adults to its population in the same decade, the largest numeric increase of any region.

Texas grew at more than twice the rate of the entire country, and Florida grew at nearly twice the national rate, reflecting broader trends as populations increased more quickly in the West, Southwest and Southeast.

Much of the growth experienced by these states was concentrated in their urban centers. In 2020, seven of the 10 largest cities were in the South and West.

Phoenix, Arizona, for example, passed Philadelphia to become the fifth largest city in the country, undergoing an extraordinary transformation. Of the 10 largest cities, it grew the fastest, increasing in population by 11.2% from 2010 to 2020. Its neighboring suburbs grew too—nearby Buckeye and Goodyear expanded across the desert, growing in population by 80% and 46%, respectively.

Of the 14 cities that gained 100,000 or more people between 2010 and 2020, six were located along the I-10 corridor. Five were in Texas and form the so-called “Texas-Triangle”—Fort Worth, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Austin—now collectively home to nearly seven million people, an increase of over 750,000 from the decade before.

Mid-sized suburban cities grew as well. Seven of the 10 fastest growing cities that had populations over 50,000 in 2010 were just outside the country’s largest cities in Arizona, California and Texas.

The census results confirm a broader trend that was already underway: in general, metropolitan areas keep getting larger while non-metropolitan areas keep getting smaller. According to the 2020 census, 86% of Americans live in metropolitan areas compared to 85% a decade ago.

Census data show that rural areas are growing slower or shrinking in comparison to urban areas. According to a 2021 analysis by the Pew Charitable Trust, rural areas in 26 states saw their populations decline, with 12 states experiencing more than a 3% decline in rural population since 2010.

These results are evident despite a large shift in population during the pandemic that occurred at least partly after the official decennial reference date of April 1, 2020, as workers who quit their jobs or chose to work remotely left cities for less urban, more affordable alternatives.

Census data collection ended on October 15, 2020, so it likely doesn’t reflect many moves that were inspired by COVID-19. Still, the census data shows how many people flocked to states in the Ten Across region, particularly their cities and suburbs.

Like the U.S., states in the South and West are more diverse than in 2010

The United States is more diverse than ever, according to the 2020 census. The Ten Across region has always been particularly diverse when compared to the nation as a whole and the recent data confirm that the region is only growing more diverse, along with the rest of the country.

In 2020, 57.8% of the U.S. population indicated their race and ethnicity is “white alone, not Hispanic or Latino,” while 48.8% did so in the Ten Across region. This is down from 2010, when 63.7% of U.S. respondents compared to 53.4% of Ten Across region respondents identified as white alone, not Hispanic or Latino.

California, Texas and New Mexico had among the lowest percentages of their total populations, including those who identified as Hispanic or Latino, who identified as “white alone” of any state—41.2%, 50.1% and 51%, respectively. California and New Mexico were also among the five states and territories where the largest racial or ethnic group by population were not white – they were Hispanic.

This was very nearly the case in Texas, where people of color made up 95% of the state’s population growth. Hispanic Texans almost tied non-Hispanic white Texans for the state’s largest demographic group: Hispanic Texans comprised 39.3% of the state’s population, while non-Hispanic white residents made up 39.8%.

Hispanic or Latino residents made up more than 25% of the residents in six states: Florida, Texas, Arizona, California, New Mexico and Nevada. Over 20% of the population of those same states indicated they were “some other race alone or in combination.” Florida, Texas and New Mexico had some of the largest populations of respondents—between 16% and 20%—who identified with “two or more races.”

The white alone population made up a smaller percentage of the 18 and over population in 2020 than it did in 2010, dropping by 10 percentage points, while the multiracial adult population increased by over 6 percentage points.

States in the Ten Across region scored high on the diversity index, a measure the Census Bureau uses to calculate the probability that two people chosen at random in a state will belong to a different racial or ethnic group. Florida, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California all scored above 61% on the index, among the ten states to do so nationwide.

Despite these strong results indicating that racial and ethnic diversity has increased in the region and across the country, it’s also possible that populations of color were undercounted. The Census Bureau estimates that in 2010 it undercounted Black and Hispanic populations and over-counted non-Hispanic white populations. The bureau will not release its estimates of over- and under-counting in the 2020 census until next year.

Redistricting will impact local and national governments alike

In August, the Census Bureau released its most detailed results yet. These counts will be used by states to redraw the lines of legislative districts and will in turn affect who is elected, how voters are represented and how resources are distributed. The trends in shifting populations and increasing diversity documented by the 2020 census could have political ramifications that will last through the upcoming decade.

A major function of the decennial census is to determine the allocation of the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and the associated votes in the electoral college that decide the presidency. States in the South and West have gained congressional seats after every census since 1960. This census is no different: Texas will gain two seats and Florida will gain one. California, however, will lose a seat for the first time.

States are currently scrambling to review the data, which was supposed to be released in April. The delay may spell trouble for states preparing for next year’s elections. A bill in Texas will postpone the 2022 election if time runs out, and Texas has also already seen a lawsuit related to the process as lawmakers argue about the best ways to redraw map lines.

Exactly how this new census data impacts redistricting will vary, as states differ in who is responsible for guiding the process. In states where legislatures are in charge, the party in power often gerrymanders the districts, or draws lines in their favor. To avoid this, some states like California have put an independent commission in charge. Political boundaries are often contested in the court of law, and sometimes redrawn with the court’s oversight.

This year’s redistricting could have profound impacts on how much power voters can wield in local and federal elections, particularly voters of color.

It comes nearly a decade after the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2013 decision to strike down key parts of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. In doing so, the court allowed states with a history of discrimination against voters, like Alabama, Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas and others, to change their election laws without federal approval, something that had been required for decades to protect voters of color.

Following the 2010 census, a lawsuit was filed accusing Texas’ legislature of gerrymandering districts. That year, Texas gained four congressional seats and the lawsuit alleged that the state intentionally drew districts to diminish the votes of Hispanics and African Americans. (People of color accounted for 90% of Texas’ population growth between 2000 and 2010.) But in 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court tossed out a lower court ruling that the state had violated the Voting Rights Act.

A year later, in 2019, the Supreme Court went further and ruled that partisan redistricting isn’t a judicial question, but rather a political one. Some fear this decision may embolden lawmakers in states with partisan redistricting processes to draw lines that favor their party.

Though every state is redistricting prior to the 2022 elections, not all are working under pressure of a tight deadline. Regardless of when states finish, the lines they draw will be able to sway political power for years to come.

In all, this year’s census results reveal a country that more closely resembles its future than its past. By 2045, demographers predict the U.S. will no longer have a racial majority, and in seven states that’s already the case. The changing country is especially evident in the Ten Across region. The populations of Ten Across states are rapidly growing, particularly in urban areas and among people of color.

But increased diversity does not necessarily guarantee more equality. Full understanding of the impacts of these changes on the country’s social, economic and political forces, both locally and nationally, is still to come.

Note: An earlier version of this article indicated that 86% of the U.S. population now lives in “urban” areas. As of 11/15/2021 this has been updated to a more accurate characterization of “metropolitan” areas. The title was also updated to reflect this change.

Thoughts? Questions?

We want to hear from you! Leave us a message below.

…or email us at info@apmresearchlab.org