COVID-19 | Ten Across
COVID-19 along the nation’s southern Corridor: What we’ve learned Two+ Years into the Pandemic
Photo by Jessica Ruscello on Unsplash
by EMILY SCHMIDT | April 13, 2022
As the U.S. has now passed the second full year since the initial COVID-19 deaths, we are taking a moment to revisit the second year of the pandemic, with a special look at what we can learn from how things played out in one region of the country.
New cases, hospitalizations and deaths fell as the number of people getting vaccinated increased throughout the late spring and early summer of 2021. As autumn approached, there were gradual upticks in COVID-19 outbreaks, but these outbreaks were nothing compared to the highly contagious omicron variant, which peaked in January 2022.
With a daily record of 17,000 new cases on Jan. 22, finding available testing locations became difficult and at-home tests were as scarce as toilet paper at the beginning of the pandemic. Since then, cases have consistently dropped, and mask mandates have been lifted across the country.
Last May we examined what we might learn from how the pandemic was playing out in a region of the country that, at least demographically, already looks like America’s future. Fifty-six percent of the population of the states tied together by Interstate 10—California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida—are BIPOC (Black, Indigenous and people of color), already surpassing the forecasted transition of America to a “majority minority” population by 2045.
On the heels of the second full year of the pandemic, we thought it worthwhile to once again review how the pandemic has played out in the Ten Across region to see what more we might learn.
Last year’s analysis of how the Ten Across region dealt with COVID-19 showed two major trends: (1) Indigenous peoples in these eight states reported a much higher mortality rate than populations in other parts of the U.S., and (2) other populations of color recorded marginally lower death rates than the rest of the country. We also found that the region has some of the nation’s highest and lowest vaccination rates. In this year’s analysis, we found these trends differed in minimal ways.
Thirty-four percent of the nation’s population lives in the eight southern states connected by the I-10 corridor, and COVID-19 has not struck the region harder or lighter than the rest of the country. By March 2021, about one-third of the nation’s COVID-19 cases and deaths occurred in the Ten Across region. A year and roughly 400,000 more deaths nation-wide later, that statistic is still true: 34% of COVID-19 deaths have happened in states connected by the I-10 corridor as of April 6, 2022.
Reflecting regional demographic differences, White Americans account for just under half of all reported deaths along the I-10 compared to nearly two-thirds of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. Latino Americans, however, comprise one-third of deaths in the Ten Across region but 17% of deaths nationwide.
COVID-19 deaths and mortality rates
Another way to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the Ten Across region is through mortality rate. Latino, Indigenous, Asian and White populations in the Ten Across region have higher crude mortality rates than those of the same groups at the national level. However, the rate for Indigenous populations is comparatively much higher. The crude mortality rate for the Black population in the Ten Across region is slightly lower than at the national level.
As people age, the risk of death increases, and so older Americans have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19. For more accurate comparisons of mortality rates between racial groups, we have age-standardized the mortality rates.
Indigenous populations in the Ten Across region have experienced the highest COVID-19 mortality rates by far. This is true looking at both crude and age-adjusted rates. The only death rate that decreased when adjusted for age was that of White populations since they’re typically older than populations of color.
Just as we saw last year, Indigenous mortality rates in the Ten Across region are higher than they are nationwide. In addition, the White population in the Ten Across region saw a major jump in both crude and age-adjusted mortality rates from last year. Furthermore, the age-adjusted rates for the Latino and Black populations in the Ten Across region, which were lower than the national rates one year ago, have now surpassed those of the nation.
Mortality rates vary substantially across the Ten Across region’s eight states for each of the racial and ethnic groups that we analyzed. The Indigenous mortality rates for Arizona and New Mexico are extremely high compared to the rest of the region and the country. Similarly, Latino populations in Arizona and Texas have higher mortality rates than the Ten Across region and the U.S.
COVID-19 vaccination
When we examined vaccination rates in the Ten Across region last May, we found that the area included some of the nation’s highest and lowest vaccination rates. A year later, New Mexico has slipped only one spot in ranking for initial vaccination rate, from 10th to now ranking 11th, and California held steady in 13th place.
More than half the population in each state along the I-10 corridor has received at least one vaccine dose, but the number varies greatly from 60% to over 85%. Mississippi ranks almost last in the nation for percentage of population with at least one dose of the vaccine. When looking at the Ten Across region for those who have completed vaccination, all states still have more than 50% of their populations vaccinated, though Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana are barely over the threshold. Those Gulf states are three of the nation’s four least vaccinated.
One possible reason for these low rates is that vaccine mandates for state employees varied greatly among the states. California and New Mexico passed mandates for both state employees and teachers to get vaccinated or to undergo weekly testing. Other states like Alabama, Florida and Texas adopted rules to prevent workplace vaccine mandates. These mandates and “anti-mandates” reflect in the percentage of each state’s population that is vaccinated.
On the national level at least, political divides have emerged as among the more salient of the many reasons for different rates of vaccination uptake. Indeed, in the Ten Across region, the states with the lowest rates went for former President Trump by the widest margins in the 2020 presidential elections.
Booster shot rates are fairly low nationwide but especially for the Ten Across region. Every state along the I-10 has boosted less than 50% of their vaccinated populations. And when considering the entire state population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people, those percentages decrease even more. Only about one-fifth the total populations in the following states have been boosted: Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas.
After comparing COVID-19 death rates and vaccination rates of states connected by the I-10 transect following a second year of the pandemic, we may now be seeing the impact of lower vaccination rates. For example, while the age-adjusted mortality rate increased for the nation’s White population by 117% from what we reported last year, it was up even more in the Ten Across region (134%), driven in part by a 189% increase in the least vaccinated state, Alabama.
Similarly, the age-adjusted COVID-19 death rate for all Black Americans increased by 83%, compared to 107% in the Ten Across Region and 119% in Alabama.
One year ago we observed a minor degree of hopefulness that the marginally lower age-adjusted COVID-19 death rates for most populations of color in the Ten Across Region as compared to the broader U.S could portend at least a slightly more equitable nationwide response to future pandemics.
Now, however, the Ten Across region’s COVID-19 death rates have caught up to those of the nation, especially in states with lower vaccination rates. This suggests that the nation has much to learn still about how to handle a long-lasting pandemic, perhaps especially the gulf states in the Ten Across region.