Environment | Public Policy | Ten Across

Autonomous Trucking: is it steering Technology in the right direction?

Editor’s note: This article is part of a collaboration between APM Research Lab and the Ten Across initiative, housed at Arizona State University.

by EMILY SCHMIDT | Dec. 1, 2022

Autonomous trucks are quickly beginning to infiltrate America’s roadways.

Kodiak Robotics and IKEA just concluded a test using self-driving technology for one-day delivery from the IKEA distribution center in Baytown, Texas to the store 300 miles away in Frisco. In a partnership between Gatik and Walmart, autonomous box trucks move orders between a Walmart warehouse and grocery store in Bentonville, Arkansas.  In November, TIME named Gatik’s trucks as one of the best inventions of 2022.

These are just a couple of many recent developments in the autonomous trucking industry. Google and Tesla, among others, have also invested heavily in self-driving technology. To date, the technology has made most gains in light trucking and has been more slowly implemented in heavy trucks, with many companies using Interstate Highway 10 to test it.

Although the narrative of a truck driver shortage been heavily debated as a retention problem, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) estimates the 2022 shortage will amount to about 78,000 drivers, just dipping from the historic high of 81,000 in 2021. And by 2031, ATA predicts the shortage will reach 160,000 drivers.

Several questions hang in the air: How feasible and safe is autonomous trucking technology? How will automation impact the industry’s inability to recruit and retain truck drivers? And how will the I-10 act as a living laboratory for future development?

DRIVER OR NO DRIVER

One of the biggest points of confusion in the conversation around automation in trucking is the difference between the terms “autonomous” and “self-driving.”

According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, there are six distinct levels of driving automation, ranging from momentary driver assistance (i.e., automatic emergency breaking) to full automation where a human driver isn’t needed to operate the vehicle.

Texas Trucking Association President and CEO John Esparza clarified, “When we speak about automation, we're talking about level four where there are observers in the vehicle that can step in if something goes wrong with the technology.”

When a vehicle is self-driving, it has some automated capability where the driver doesn’t always need to be in control.

“We’re very careful to talk about [automation with] the thought that there will be…somebody controlling that vehicle along with the technology. We're not looking to replace drivers by any stretch of the imagination,” said Tony Bradley, president and CEO of Arizona Trucking Association.

There are numerous established companies and flourishing startups that have joined the race in automating the trucking industry, including Aurora, Kodiak, TuSimple and Waymo. They share a collective goal in developing technology that is safe, reliable and efficient in transporting goods across long distances.  

SAFETY CONCERNS

Trucking, as it exists today, is not without safety risks. In 2020, about 74,000 people were injured and 3,200 people died in crashes involving a combination truck, which is a tractor trailer pulling any number of trailers or a straight truck with at least one trailer, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA)’s definition. These types of trucks typically travel long distances across the U.S. and are prioritized in automation efforts.

Since automation is still experimental (and still mainly used for smaller trucks), automated trucks account for virtually none of these accidents. Many may fear that automation would increase the numbers of crashes, but industry experts that we consulted indicate improved safety is one of the big promises of automation.

APM Research Lab reached out to Kodiak, TuSimple and Waymo to talk about their technology. All three agreed that automatous trucks are safer than human-driven trucks, and their respective companies are continuously working to make the technology more precise and accurate.

In a FMCSA-conducted study, human error accounted for most large truck crashes. These factors included traveling too fast for conditions, drug and alcohol use, illness, and distraction.

“The Kodiak Driver will never text and drive, or drive drunk, distracted or drowsy. Plus, unlike human drivers, our trucks learn in parallel: when one truck learns something, they all do,” said Dan Goff, head of external affairs at Kodiak Robotics.

Goff added that Kodiak was the first company to publicly demonstrate its “fallback system,” that pulls a self-driving truck to the side of the road when the technology fails. Similarly, Kodiak was also the first company to show how its self-driving system maintains control during a tire blowout.

However, some experts like Dan Murray of the American Trucking Research Institute say these tests don’t properly demonstrate the capacity and safety of the technology, especially when it could be decades until level five automation will be reached. Additionally, autonomous trucking accidents have made waves in the news.

Last April, an autonomous truck programmed with TuSimple’s technology was involved in a collision on the I-10 highway outside Tucson, Ariz.; it veered left across several lanes and slammed into a barricade. Nobody was injured or killed.

And in May, the driver of an autonomous Waymo truck sustained moderate injuries when another truck merged into the far-right lane of the I-45 and forced Waymo’s truck off the road.

EFFICIENCY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

A major argument pushing the advancement of autonomous trucks is greater efficiency. FMCSA has strict hours of service regulations, which determine how long truckers can drive depending on frequency of work. Automation proponents say the technology will help trucks make deliveries in shorter times without the required human driver breaks and increase truck utilization rates.

“The industry needs solutions to normalize supply and demand of trucking capacity in a safe and cost-effective way. By automating the longest stretches of highway, what's called the ‘middle-mile,’ we add stable capacity that isn't dependent on driver availability,” a TuSimple spokesperson told the Lab.

In a 2019 study, researchers at the University of California San Diego found TuSimple’s trucks to be at least 10% more fuel efficient than traditional trucks.

Dr. Parth Vaishav, assistant professor of sustainable systems at the University of Michigan, said states should be asking the trucking industry what environmental benefits will come from implementing this technology.

“The fact that the trucks are running all the time really improves the economics of the truck itself,” he said. “So, can I dramatically reduce road wear, energy use and CO2 emissions by cutting speed limit?”

Since trucks will be making fewer stops and getting to their destination faster, Vaishnav said cutting the speed limit of autonomous trucks (which come with safety concerns) could be a fair ask. Studies show that reducing speed improves fuel efficiency—higher speeds create more wind resistance, burning more fuel.

The question of how autonomous trucks would be deployed remains unanswered. One possibility is platooning, where a series of trucks follow each other very closely, using connectivity technology and automated driver support systems. Platooning has been proven to increase fuel efficiency and curtail emissions.

A recent study found this practice to be nearly ready to utilize, but traffic flow would be negatively impacted by platooning, especially in congested areas. Merging would also be affected, but not severely for short platoon sizes.

Some companies pursuing automation are moving beyond fuel efficiency toward emission-free trucking. For example, Einride, a Swedish company, manufactures all-electric heavy trucks and trailers, but only some have autonomous capabilities.

And as support for autonomous trucks grows, stakeholders in the rail industry are questioning whether freight rail will even survive. Investment experts have even stated that 30% to 60% of rail traffic could face major consequences like price increase competition if autonomous, platooned electric trucks became widespread.

JOB LOSS AND PUBLIC POLICY

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates there were 1.9 million heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers in 2021. What’s more, the U.S. Census Bureau cites a total 3.5 million people who work as truckers in general. Though that may seem like a high number, the ATA asserts there is a trucker shortage of almost 80,000.

U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has been vocal about low trucker retention and supportive of recruitment efforts, especially those focusing on women.

Right now, the trucking workforce is on the older side, with the median hovering around 46. It’s also heavily male and white, with just 8% of drivers being women. Compared to total Americans employed, though, there is a greater percentage of Hispanic and Black truck drivers.

This poses some concern for how automation will not only impact truckers overall, but particularly those of color. A similar but more exacerbated situation could exist with autonomous city buses and Black bus drivers.

The extent to which automation could impact drivers is widely disputed. A 2019 report published by the U.S. Government Accountability Office warned that autonomous trucks could displace up to 900,000 truck drivers over the next couple decades. Meanwhile, Dr. Steve Viscelli, a sociologist at the University of Pennsylvania, estimates just 294,000 jobs at risk (mostly long-haul with specialized tasks) in a report he authored.

In the report, Viscelli emphasizes the importance of public policy in shaping how automation impacts the trucking industry in the future. He writes that “without policy intervention, automation will likely eliminate high- and mid-wage trucking jobs, while creating low-quality driving jobs.”

The median pay for heavy truck drivers in 2021 was about $48,000, ranging from $57,000 in Washington State to $43,000 in West Virginia.

Vaishnav conducted a study about the impact of automation on long-haul trucking operator hours. It concluded that up to 94% of these hours could be affected, under the assumption that autonomous technology improves enough to operate in all weather conditions. However, this estimate is dependent on the scenario in which this technology is deployed, and the study considers four different scenarios.  

Even with such high job loss estimates, multiple experts stated that truckers aren’t completely opposed to autonomous technology.

Esparza said the Texas truckers he’s spoken with have lenient views and are curious about what will be perfected. During interviews for his study, Vaishnav didn’t get any pushback from truckers about highway driving being automated.

Bradley said the people he’s discussed automation with look at it like a safety enhancement. Trucks already use a lot of the technology, and further advancement is promising.

INNOVATION LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG INTERSTATE 10

To date, much of the innovation around autonomous trucking technology has occurred somewhere along the I-10 corridor connecting Los Angeles, Ca. to Jacksonville, Fl.

“We’re starting out on commercial routes across the southwestern part of the U.S. with the eventual goal of expanding across the U.S. A major reason being this region has good weather conditions, making it a good place for us to start out as we further invest in weather testing,” said Charlie Jett, head of commercialization for trucking at Waymo.

Jett added that regulations in Arizona and Texas are favorable, echoing Esparza’s praise for Texas being a “truck-friendly state.”

“Texas is well-positioned from a policy standpoint to embrace all that automation has to offer,” Esparza said. “There are no roadblocks because Texas cleared the way several sessions ago.”

Like Waymo, TuSimple is also utilizing the I-10 for testing and commercializing autonomous technology. In speaking with their customers about what freight routes need automating the most a TuSimple spokesperson said the I-10 is consistently brought up.

They are the first and only company to have safely operated heavy-duty trucks on an open public road with no driver on board and no remote control or intervention, which occurred on the I-10 between Phoenix and Tucson.

While further automation of trucking seems inevitable, experts agree there are many factors needed to bring the technology to scale.

Viscelli said policy is one of the biggest factors, but first, we must think about our goals—whether that’s fighting climate change, making the roadways safer, conserving infrastructure, reducing emissions or moving goods faster and more cheaply.

“Autonomy is one tool that could help us, but we need to have a comprehensive policy discussion about what we want to achieve and how the pieces fit.”

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