Ten Across
Waiting in line to vote: Effective administration is key to short wait times, election trust
Photo credit: Vedrana Filipović for Unsplash
RELATED
Mood of the nation: How do Americans feel about who should be allowed to vote? And why?
Poll: Most Americans think liberty has waned, rights will further diminish
By the Census: Increasingly metropolitan and diverse population foreshadows United States’ future
Poll: A strong majority of Americans endorse democracy, but some—especially among younger generations—are skeptical
Poll worker shortages, as well as rapidly changing election laws, threaten progress toward more efficient voting
Editor’s note: This article is part of a collaboration between APM Research Lab and the Ten Across initiative, housed at Arizona State University.
by MAYA CHARI | October 9, 2024
In March 2016, voters in Maricopa County, Arizona faced hours-long lines as they sought to cast their ballots in the presidential primary. Many were still in line when the race was called. A few months later, the situation in the November general election wasn’t much better, as several locations reported lines of hundreds at 7 PM, when the polls officially closed.
A 2021 survey by Penn State’s McCourtney Institute for Democracy found, “A majority of Americans believe that no voter should have to wait longer than 60 minutes to cast their ballot. Nearly half indicate that wait times exceeding 30 minutes are unacceptable.” Still, in 2020, about 18% of voters waited longer than 30 minutes, including the six percent who waited over an hour.
The negative effects of long lines at polling places are well-documented, and most severely affect minority and low-income communities. After long voting lines made the news in the 2012 presidential election, the newly reelected President Barack Obama created a commission to study wait times. Since then, there have been increased efforts nationwide to research and address the issue.
Long lines, big drama in Maricopa County
Maricopa County is the fourth-largest U.S. county, and the largest in a current swing state. In 2016, it was home to over two million voters and only 60 polling places. There had been as many as 200 polling places in 2012, but as a result of state budget cuts officials closed 140 of them by the time of election.
Once, such an action would have needed federal approval. Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 had required changes in voting policy in many states to undergo review to ensure that they were not racially discriminatory. But Section 5 was struck down by the Supreme Court in 2013. Since then, 29 states have enacted 94 restrictive voting laws. A report by the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights found that in the six years after the 2013 decision, 1,688 polling places closed across 13 states.
After Maricopa County’s 2016 lines sparked bipartisan outrage, Republican Helen Purcell, the county recorder at the time, lost her office in the November election to Democrat Adrian Fontes. Fontes then commissioned Jeffery Mason, a business systems analyst for the recorder’s office, to compile a report on the causes of the long wait times.
Mason concluded that the lines were chiefly caused by the cuts in funding and a resulting shortage of poll workers, and that approximately 133,000 voters were effectively disenfranchised when they decided not to vote due to the excessive lines.
These findings were controversial. Fontes immediately disavowed the report and refused to release it to the public. The county supervisor at the time, Republican Steve Chucri, called it a “hit piece.” Mason resigned and submitted the report in its entirety to The Arizona Republic.
The causes of long lines
For most Americans, voting is relatively quick and easy. In the 2022 midterm elections, the average time to vote was five minutes. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic presenting unique challenges, in the 2020 election the average voter waited only 11.6 minutes.
But every year, a significant minority of voters wait for an hour or more.
Robert Stein, a political science professor at Rice University, identified improper election administration as the cause of these lines.
“I can walk into a polling location and immediately say, ‘This is not going to work,’” Stein said. He pointed to inadequate staffing, low numbers of polling places and too-small locations as key culprits.
In 2014, the Presidential Commission on Election Administration compiled an extensive report on administration best practices. The report called for expansion of online voter registration, extended early voting and standardized, modernized voting equipment. It also highlighted the importance of accurately modeling the number of voters and ensuring that voting locations are staffed with well-trained workers, including those that can assist disabled voters and those who do not speak English.
“There are things that election officials can control and things they can’t,” said Stein. Election officials have no control, for example, over the availability of mail-in and early voting, which is determined by laws at the state level.
A 2016 collaborative study on which Stein is a corresponding author surveyed 9,347 voter experiences across 605 polling place locations and 19 states. It found that “the number of poll workers per voters in line has the most impactful effect on reducing average hourly line length.”
The difficulties of finding enough poll workers
In spite of the importance of having adequate numbers of poll workers, many states are facing poll worker shortages.
Working at the polls often requires an open schedule. This could be one reason why poll workers tend to be over 65 and retired. Many states also require members of both political parties to be working the polls at any given time.
“The issue is twofold,” said Stein. “Experience and an inadequate number.” He cited changing election laws as a factor, as they make it more difficult for more experienced poll workers to train new ones.
Additionally, harassment and threats on poll workers are on the rise, sometimes from poll watchers – volunteers who are permitted to observe the election process.
Impacts of long lines
The research shows that long lines tend to deter voters, though there’s some evidence that people are likely to stick it out in the very longest lines. But even among those who stay to cast their ballot, those who experience long lines are less likely to vote in the future.
Voter experiences at the polls – including the length of the lines – also impacts perceptions of election fairness. And voter confidence is especially important during close elections, which are becoming increasingly common.
Overall cost of voting
In 2018, Michael Pomante, a political science researcher, published a book called The Cost of Voting in the American States. Pomante initially developed the Cost of Voting Index (COVI) as part of his PhD dissertation and has updated it for each subsequent presidential election. COVI analyzes the legislation in each state that affects the time and effort required to cast a ballot.
There are 10 major components in COVI: registration deadline, voter registration restrictions, registration drive restrictions, preregistration laws, automatic voter registrations, voting inconvenience, voter ID laws, poll hours, early voting days and absentee voting.
“Excessive voting wait times”— those of an hour or more — factor into the 12-item “voting inconvenience” index. Several other items in that index are correlated with longer wait times, including the number of polling stations and the availability of voting by mail. Another pertinent item linked to longer wait times addresses laws that prohibit distributing food and water to those waiting in line to vote.
COVI shows that voting wait times, while important, don’t show the whole picture. Texas’s voting wait times have not increased since 2008, and they are only slightly above the national average. But according to COVI, voting has continuously gotten harder in the state, through laws like Senate Bill 1, which introduced measures such as limiting absentee voting and reducing voting hours. Texas is also one of only seven states that do not allow online voter registration.
Perhaps as a result, voter turnout in Texas’s 2022 primaries was extremely low. Only 17.5% of registered voters showed up to vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary. This year, the state ranks 48th for ease of voting, down from 45th in 2022.
“Statements made by politicians tend to focus on election integrity,” said Pomante. “They tend to say that we're putting these policies in place to make sure no one's committing election fraud or voter fraud.” But in fact, the evidence shows that “voter fraud is randomly distributed. States that make voting difficult, like Texas, do not see any smaller numbers in voter fraud or election fraud than other states that make voting easier, like Colorado.”
Since the last presidential election, several states have made changes that either make it easier or harder to vote. For example, Indiana's COVI ranking moved up 17 spots, while Minnesota and Vermont rose by 16. On the other hand, North Carolina fell by 14 spots and Georgia fell by 11.
Who waits to vote?
In the 2016 study, neighborhood racial composition was found to be the single strongest predictor of long wait times, though average neighborhood income was also a factor. A 2020 analysis of smartphone data showed that residents of predominantly black neighborhoods were 74% more likely to wait in line for more than 30 minutes.
Stein pointed out that lower-income and minority communities tend to have less access to public facilities that can serve as voting locations. Pomante's research has also found that from 1996 to 2020, Republican legislatures were more likely to pass restrictive voting laws – but only in states with large Black and Latino populations.
Maricopa County’s quest to reduce lines
Maricopa County has taken steps to prevent a repeat of 2016. The county has implemented a waiting time reduction plan. At present, there are 263 voting locations, and residents of the county can vote at any of them. Live wait times are available on Maricopa County’s website.
In Maricopa County, the Board of Supervisors is in charge of administering elections and certifying election results, among other duties. The County Recorder, meanwhile, handles voter registration and vote-by-mail. A director of elections reports to both the recorder and the board of supervisors.
The county employs hundreds of full-time election workers and hires two to three thousand temporary workers before a presidential election.
The current chair of the Board of Supervisors, Bill Gates, is personally aware of the difficulties poll workers and election officials often face. Gates, a staunch Republican, has spoken publicly about the death threats and harassment he and other officials experienced after verifying the 2020 election result, in which President Joe Biden narrowly defeated former President Donald Trump in the county.
Still, he was pleased to report that he was able to hire adequate staff ahead of this November’s election. The county has also invested in new voting machines after issues in 2022.
“We feel like within the laws that are in place we have put together a plan that should keep lines to a minimum,” Gates said. “We're not telling people there'll be no lines, but they should be manageable lines.”
The test of that will come when Maricopa County’s more than four million registered voters head to the polls next month.