Turkey-syria earthquake is deadliest in region in 75 years
Photo by Çağlar Oskay on Unsplash
by ALYSON CLARY | Mar. 9, 2023
In the early morning hours of Feb. 6, an earthquake of 7.8 magnitude struck southern Turkey near the border with Syria, followed by a 7.5 magnitude earthquake later that day among many aftershocks. As of Mar. 7, Reuters reported the death toll from the earthquake and its aftershocks at over 52,000 in Turkey and Syria, with millions more displaced by the events.
Due to its location at the intersection of three tectonic plates, Turkey regularly experiences earthquakes of varying magnitude. But the Feb. 6 earthquake has become Turkey’s deadliest over the last century, surpassing the death tolls of the 1999 earthquake that killed over 17,000 people and the 1939 earthquake that killed nearly 33,000 people.
In order to place the Feb. 6 earthquake in Turkey in a global and historical context, the APM Research Lab looked at data from the Significant Earthquake Database (SED) compiled by the National Centers for Environmental Information, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Earthquakes in the database must meet at least one of the following criteria: cause at least $1 million in damage, have a death toll of 10 or more people, have a 7.5 magnitude or greater, place at least 10 on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale, or cause a tsunami.
Deadliest earthquakes around the world
In the last 30 years, there have been 30 earthquakes with death tolls of more than 1,000 people, according to the SED. The recent earthquake in Turkey is the fifth deadliest among that list. These four earthquakes were deadlier:
2010 earthquake in Haiti, 7 magnitude, 316,000 people dead
2004 earthquake in Indonesia, 9.1 magnitude, 227,900 people dead
2008 earthquake in China, 7.9 magnitude, 87,700 people dead
2005 earthquake in Pakistan, 7.6 magnitude, 76,200 people dead
The death toll for the 2004 Indonesian earthquake includes those who died directly in the earthquake and the far greater number of people who died in the tsunami that was caused by it. The same is true for another 9.1 magnitude earthquake, the 2011 earthquake in Japan, which ranks as the eighth deadliest earthquake on this list when including total number of deaths from the earthquake and its secondary effects.
In the last 100 years, there have been 99 earthquakes with death tolls over 1,000 people according to the SED. The recent earthquake in Turkey ranks as the 10th deadliest earthquake over the last century, when looking at total deaths (including those from secondary effects of the earthquake). In fact, five of the 10 deadliest earthquakes over the last century have happened since the year 2000.
With global population quadrupling over the past century, it is not surprising that several of the deadliest earthquakes have occurred in recent years. Indeed, a recent study of deadly earthquakes from 1990 to 2015 concluded that earthquake fatalities increased with larger populations, and population has increased considerably in recent decades in earthquake-prone areas .
The study’s authors found an interesting countertrend, however, noting that fatalities tend to decrease as the proportion of a country’s population that resides in urban areas increases. “This finding suggests that the resistance of building and infrastructure is greater in countries with higher urbanization ratios,” the study’s authors state.
Both of these factors—population and infrastructure—appear to have played a role in the large death toll of Turkey’s most recent earthquake. The impacted region has seen a large influx of Syrian refugees fleeing civil war. A report from the Foreign Policy Research Institute noted that many refugees “have been housed in makeshift domiciles or moved into hastily constructed apartments that have been exempt from earthquake safety standards.”
In addition, the region appears to have infrastructure vulnerabilities beyond refugee housing. Although the Turkish government updated their building codes to some of the safest in the world after the 1999 earthquake, the New York Times reports that Turkey has consistently failed to enforce those codes.
Where are deadly earthquakes concentrated?
The East Asia and Pacific region, as defined by the World Bank, has experienced 45 earthquakes over the last three decades with more than 50 deaths, the largest number among all world regions. South Asia has the next highest number, with 20 earthquakes. These two regions are followed by Europe and Central Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa, with 16, 15 and 12 earthquakes, respectively. North America and Sub-Saharan Africa each had one earthquake that fit the criteria.
Focusing on nations, Turkey has experienced eight earthquakes over the last 30 years with 50 or more deaths, fifth largest among all countries. Turkey also accounts for half of all earthquakes in Europe and Central Asia with 50 or more deaths over the last three decades. Indonesia has experienced the highest number of earthquakes that meet that threshold, with 19 over the last 30 years.
When we expand the timeframe to include earthquakes over the last `100 years with 50 or more deaths, Turkey is tied with China for the location with the second-largest number of earthquakes, each experienced 39 earthquakes that met this threshold over the last century. Iran experienced 42 earthquakes with 50 or more deaths, the greatest number over the last century.
Turkey has only experienced two earthquakes over the last three decades that each resulted in over 1,000 deaths. By comparison, Indonesia has had five earthquakes over the last 30 years that meet that threshold, Afghanistan has had four and Iran has had three.
Over the last century, however, Turkey has experienced 13 earthquakes with a death toll of 1,000 or more people. This is the second largest number of earthquakes in one country that meets that death-toll threshold during that time period. Iran experienced 15 earthquakes over the last century that killed 1,000 or more people.
The costliest earthquakes in the last 30 years
The 2011 earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Japan and the 1995 earthquake in Japan top the list of the costliest earthquakes in the last three decades, with $295 billion and $199 billion in total damages (adjusted to present day value), respectively. Japan, in fact, appears four times on this list. This data, however, only reflects what is recorded in the Significant Earthquakes Database, and not every earthquake includes a dollar amount in total damages.
Damage costs are also likely much higher in places that are more economically resourced. For example, the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan devastated the world’s sixth-largest container port at the time, according to an article in The Economist after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
The 1999 earthquake in Turkey appears seventh in this list, with total damages around $36 billion after adjusting for inflation. On Feb. 27, the World Bank released a rapid damage assessment report in which they calculated that the earthquake in Turkey caused an estimated $34.2 billion in damages, acknowledging that this figure would likely grow considerably over time. The SED appears to have included this figure in their database. On Mar. 7, however, the U.N. Development Programme announced that current data indicates damage from the earthquake will exceed $100 billion.
While earthquakes are difficult to predict, it is only a matter of time before we witness another earthquake the size of the one that struck Turkey and Syria. In 82 of the last 100 years, there were anywhere between one and six earthquakes of magnitude 7.8 or greater per year, with an average of two per year. But that does not mean that we will see similar death tolls. In fact, just over half of all earthquakes over the last century with a magnitude 7.8 or greater had zero deaths attributed to them. Only nine earthquakes over the last century had a total death toll of 50,000 or more.
While population growth and density may exacerbate these trends in some parts of the world, hopefully the impacts of large-scale earthquakes may be mitigated by government foresight, including ever-improving building codes and civil engineering, and government enforcement of those codes.