The color of coronavirus:
COVID-19 deaths by race and ethnicity in the U.S.

 

by APM RESEARCH LAB STAFF | Mar. 15, 2022

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Editors note: This is a re-launched version of our original Color of Coronavirus project, which ran from April 2020 through March 2021. That project was based on harvesting data from the COVID-19 statistics reported separately from each state. Since that time the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics has developed a more robust system of tracking COVID-19 mortality, based on death certificates. While not without some issues (especially a known undercounting of American Indian deaths, which we address below) this data set is even more comprehensive than was the case in our original reporting of these issues. Even as we regret that tracking COVID-19 deaths is still a relevant pursuit, we hope that you will find our work meaningful and helpful in addressing the pandemic and understanding its impacts. As always, we welcome your feedback and insights (info@apmresearchlab.org).


The United States’ COVID-19 death toll has now surpassed 965,000. Our ongoing Color of Coronavirus project monitors how and where COVID-19 mortality is inequitably impacting certain communities — to guide policy and community responses. Relying on CDC data, we have documented the race and ethnicity for 99% of these cumulative deaths in the United States.

Although over three-quarters of the U.S. population is vaccinated, the virus’ recent toll has been devastating for all groups. Our latest update shows overall death tolls in January of 2022 were the highest since January of 2021. Data from February of 2022 is still being collected by CDC.

Black, White and Asian Americans all saw a steep increase in deaths from December 2021 to January 2022, with January becoming the deadliest month for those groups since vaccines became widely available. Latino Americans and Americans of more than one race also saw a recent sharp increase in deaths — the toll for those groups approximately doubled from December to January — with numbers of deaths reaching or surpassing those from September 2021, another recent high point. Indigenous Americans have faced a similar death toll every month for the past six months, since the Delta variant emerged in the summer of 2021. Black Americans are the only group to have seen the greatest loss at the beginning of the pandemic, while Pacific Islander Americans are the only group to have their deadliest month (September 2021) come after vaccines were widely available.

When looking at the mortality burdens of each group as a share of their respective populations, Indigenous Americans continue to suffer the highest rates of loss — a position they have held since early November 2020 — followed by Pacific Islander and Black Americans.

As with prior releases, we have also adjusted these mortality rates for differences in the age distribution of populations (which differ across race groups and states), a common and important tool that health researchers use to compare diseases that affect age groups differently. At the national level, this results in even larger documented mortality disparities—every group except for White Americans has a higher mortality rate after accounting for age. And Pacific Islander, Latino, Black and Indigenous Americans all have a COVID-19 death rate of double or more that of Asian Americans, who experience the lowest age-adjusted rates.

KEY FINDINGS (from data through March 5, 2022):

  • These are the documented, nationwide crude mortality impacts from COVID-19 data (aggregated from all available U.S. states and the District of Columbia) for all race groups since the start of the pandemic.

    • 1 in 230 Indigenous Americans have died (or 434 deaths per 100,000)

    • 1 in 298 Pacific Islander Americans have died (or 336 deaths per 100,000)

    • 1 in 303 Black Americans have died (or 330 deaths per 100,000)

    • 1 in 319 White Americans have died (or 313 deaths per 100,000)

    • 1 in 394 Latino Americans have died (or 254 deaths per 100,000)

    • 1 in 641 Asian Americans have died (or 156 deaths per 100,000)

  • Indigenous Americans have the highest crude COVID-19 mortality rates nationwide—about 2.8 times as high as the rate for Asians, who have the lowest crude rates. And, the CDC notes that Indigenous American deaths are often undercounted, with the latest research suggesting the true mortality rate for this group could be around 34% higher than official reports.

  • Asian Americans saw the biggest increase in mortality rates between December 2021 and January 2022—about 2.7 times more Asians died in January compared to December.

  • Adjusting the data for age differences in race groups increases the mortality rates for all but White Americans. Latino Americans see the greatest increase between crude and age-adjusted rates. The Indigenous American population has the highest age-adjusted mortality rate, followed by Latino, Pacific Islander and Black residents, as shown in the graph below. As noted by the CDC, “adjusting by age is important because risk of infection, hospitalization, and death is different by age, and age distribution differs by racial and ethnic group. If the effect of age is not accounted for, racial and ethnic disparities can be underestimated or overestimated.” More on age-adjustments below.

  • Of the approximately 957,000 cumulative U.S. deaths catalogued in this Color of Coronavirus update, these are the known numbers of lives lost by group: Asian (30,236), Black (136,818), Indigenous (10,568), Latino (155,531), Pacific Islander (2,061) and White Americans (616,025). Additionally, 6,244 deaths are recorded as “other” race.

  • We’ve included some key assumptions and caveats below, and we’ve made our full code and methods available on our GitHub repository.

EXAMINE THE DATA:

1. TRENDS: EXPLORE DATA FOR THE U.S. OR A SINGLE STATE OVER TIME

Crude mortality rate or Number of reported deaths

2. TOTALS: EXPLORE DATA FOR THE U.S. OR A SINGLE STATE

Crude mortality rates and age-adjusted mortality rates or Number of reported deaths

3. EXPLORE DATA BY GROUP AND COMPARE AMONG STATES ON A MAP

Asian Americans | Black Americans | Indigenous Americans | Latino Americans |
Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander Americans | White Americans

FOCUS ON ASIAN AMERICANS

Lives lost to date

  • 30,236 Asian Americans are known to have lost their lives to COVID-19 through March 5, 2022. There were 2,050 new deaths reported among Asians for the last full month of data (January 2022), which is a significant acceleration of losses over the preceding month (772).

  • Nationwide, Asian Americans have experienced 3.2% of all deaths, while they represent 6% of the population of known races.

Crude mortality rate

  • For every 100,000 Asian Americans, about 156 have died from the coronavirus, a mortality rate lower than all other race/ethnicity groups.

  • Of the 47 states/DC for which a crude mortality rate can be calculated, four of them have seen more than 1 in 500 Asian residents die (i.e., more than 200 per 100,000).

Age-adjusted mortality rate

  • Nationwide, Asian Americans have the lowest age-adjusted mortality rate (192 per 100,000), followed by White Americans (256).

  • Adjusted for age (where possible), Nevada (359), Minnesota (349), New York (328), Wisconsin (315) and New Jersey (246) have seen the highest COVID-19 mortality rates (per 100,000) among their Asian residents.

Note: Nationwide statistics are derived from CDC reporting at the national level and are not suppressed. State level statistics are suppressed by CDC when the number of deaths is between 1-9.

FOCUS ON BLACK AMERICANS

Lives lost to date

  • 136,818 Black Americans are known to have lost their lives to COVID-19 through March 5, 2022. There were 10,447 new deaths reported among Black Americans for the last full month of data (January 2022), which more than doubles the number of losses over the preceding month (4,326).

  • Nationwide, Black Americans have experienced 14.3% of all deaths, while they represent 12.9% of the population of known races.

Crude mortality rate

  • For every 100,000 Black Americans, about 330 Black Americans have died from the coronavirus. This is about double the rate of Asian Americans, who have had the lowest rate, and about 25% less than Indigenous Americans, who have the highest rate.

  • Of the 49 states/DC for which a crude mortality rate can be calculated, 37 of them have seen more than 1 in 500 Black residents die (i.e., more than 200 per 100,000).

Age-adjusted mortality rate

  • Nationwide, the age-adjusted mortality rate for Black Americans (428 per 100,000) is about 2.2 times that of the group with the lowest age-adjusted mortality rate, which is Asian Americans (192 per 100,000).

  • Adjusting for age highlights a disparity in deaths between White and Black Americans in particular — the two groups have similar crude mortality rates, but the Black American age-adjusted mortality rate is 67% higher than the same measure for White Americans.

  • Adjusted for age (where possible), Mississippi (571), Iowa (557), New Jersey (547), New York (536) and Nevada (531) have seen the highest COVID-19 mortality rates (per 100,000) among their Black residents.

Note: Nationwide statistics are derived from CDC reporting at the national level and are not suppressed. State level statistics are suppressed by CDC when the number of deaths is between 1-9.

FOCUS ON INDIGENOUS AMERICANS

The CDC notes that Indigenous American deaths are often undercounted, with the latest research suggesting the true mortality rate for this group could be around 34% higher than official reports.

Lives lost to date

  • At least 10,568 Indigenous Americans are known to have lost their lives to COVID-19 through March 5, 2022. There were 604 new deaths reported among Indigenous Americans for the last full month of data (January 2022), which is a slight increase over the preceding month (525).

  • Nationwide, Indigenous Americans have experienced 1.1% of all deaths, while they represent 0.8% of the population of known races.

Crude mortality rate

  • For every 100,000 Indigenous Americans, about 435 have died from the coronavirus. This is about 2.75 times the rate of Asian Americans, who have had the lowest rate, and about 30% more than Pacific Islander Americans, who have the next-highest rate after Indigenous Americans.

  • Of the 44 states for which a crude mortality rate can be calculated, 29 of them have seen more than 1 in 500 Indigenous American residents die (i.e., more than 200 per 100,000).

Age-adjusted mortality rate

  • Nationwide, Indigenous Americans have the highest age-adjusted mortality rate (532 per 100,000).

  • Adjusted for age (where possible), North Dakota (1,261), New Mexico (1,173), Montana (1,138), Arizona (1,072) and South Dakota (1,034) have seen the highest COVID-19 mortality rates (per 100,000) among their Indigenous American residents.

Note: Nationwide statistics are derived from CDC reporting at the national level and are not suppressed. State level statistics are suppressed by CDC when the number of deaths is between 1-9.

FOCUS ON LATINO AMERICANS

Lives lost to date

  • 155,531 Latino Americans are known to have lost their lives to COVID-19 through March 5, 2022. There were 8,956 new deaths reported among Latinos for the last full month of data (January 2022), which is an acceleration of losses over the preceding month (4,728).

  • Nationwide, Latino Americans have experienced 16.2% of all deaths, while they represent 19% of the population of known races.

Crude mortality rate

  • For every 100,000 Latino Americans, about 254 have died from the coronavirus. This is about 60% more than the rate of Asian Americans, who have had the lowest rate, and about 20% less than White Americans.

  • Of the 50 states/DC for which a crude mortality rate can be calculated, 15 of them have seen more than 1 in 500 Latino residents die (i.e., more than 200 per 100,000).

Age-adjusted mortality rate

  • Nationwide, Latino Americans see the biggest increase when adjusting for age — from 254 per 100,000 to 460 per 100,000. This also means that they go from having a crude mortality rate less than that of White Americans, to an age-adjusted mortality rate that is almost double that of White Americans.

  • Adjusted for age (where possible), Arizona (615), Texas (585), District of Columbia (579), Oklahoma (551) and New Jersey (527) have seen the highest COVID-19 mortality rates (per 100,000) among their Latino residents.

Note: Nationwide statistics are derived from CDC reporting at the national level and are not suppressed. State level statistics are suppressed by CDC when the number of deaths is between 1-9.

FOCUS ON PACIFIC ISLANDER AMERICANS

Lives lost to date

  • Lives lost to date: 2,061 Pacific Islander Americans are known to have lost their lives to COVID-19 through March 5, 2022. There were 145 new deaths reported among Pacific Islanders for the last full month of data (January 2022), which is up significantly from deaths over the preceding month (87).

  • Nationwide, Pacific Islander Americans have experienced 0.22% of all deaths, while they represent 0.19% of the population of known races.

Crude mortality rate

  • For every 100,000 Pacific Islander Americans, about 336 have died from the coronavirus. This is similar to Black Americans, about double that of Asian Americans, and about 22% less than Indigenous Americans, who have the highest crude mortality rate.

  • Of the 23 states for which a crude mortality rate can be calculated, all of them except for Hawaii have seen more than 1 in 500 Pacific Islander residents die (i.e., more than 200 per 100,000). (Note: Six other states/DC have zero Pacific Islander deaths, so technically those states also have a crude rate that can be calculated, but they’re excluded from the above statistic.)

Age-adjusted mortality rate

  • Nationwide, Pacific Islander Americans have the third-highest age-adjusted mortality rate (449 per 100,000), just under Latino Americans (460).

  • Washington (814), California (536) and Hawaii (232) are the only states for which age-adjusted rates are calculated, due to statistical requirements.

Note: Nationwide statistics are derived from CDC reporting at the national level and are not suppressed. State level statistics are suppressed by CDC when the number of deaths is between 1-9.

FOCUS ON WHITE AMERICANS

Lives lost to date

  • 616,025 White Americans are known to have lost their lives to COVID-19 through March 5, 2022. There were 53,638 new deaths reported among White Americans for the last full month of data (January 2022), which is an acceleration of losses over the preceding month (33,899).

  • Nationwide, White Americans have experienced 64.3% of all deaths, while they represent 61.1% of the population of known races.

Crude mortality rate

  • For every 100,000 White Americans, about 313 have died from the coronavirus. This is somewhat less than Black and Pacific Islander Americans, and about double that of Asian Americans, who have the lowest crude mortality rate. Indigenous Americans have the highest rate, about 40% more than White Americans.

  • Of the 51 states/DC for which a crude mortality rate can be calculated, 42 of them have seen more than 1 in 500 White residents die (i.e., more than 200 per 100,000).

Age-adjusted mortality rate

  • Nationwide, White Americans are the only group with an age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality rate that is lower than the crude rate.

  • Adjusted for age, Mississippi (383), Oklahoma (363), Tennessee (353), Kentucky (348) and Alabama (347) have seen the highest COVID-19 mortality rates (per 100,000) among their White residents.

Note: Nationwide statistics are derived from CDC reporting at the national level and are not suppressed. State level statistics are suppressed by CDC when the number of deaths is between 1-9.

SOURCES
Mortality Data
  • For total counts and for calculating cumulative crude rates and age-adjusted rates: CDC/NCHS - Distribution of COVID-19 Deaths and Populations, by Jurisdiction, Age, and Race and Hispanic Origin.
  • For counts over time and for crude rates over time, monthly/national: CDC/NCHS - Provisional COVID-19 Deaths: Distribution of Deaths by Race and Hispanic Origin.
  • For counts over time and for crude rates over time quarterly/states: CDC/NCHS - AH Quarterly Excess Deaths by State, Sex, Age, and Race.
    • According to the CDC, about 91% of these deaths have COVID-19 indicated as the underlying cause of death, while for the other 9% COVID-19 is one of multiple causes of death.

    Population Data
    Mid-Year 2020 U.S. Census Data accessed via CDC-WONDER
  • National populations by race, all ages combined.
  • State-level populations by race, all ages combined.
  • For age adjustment, national population by age groups: Non-Hispanic, Hispanic.
  • For age adjustment, state populations by age groups: Non-Hispanic, Hispanic.

    • All calculations and subsequent analysis are by APM Research Lab and available on our GitHub.
    NOTES
    Race and Ethnicity Groups
    Our labels of each race/ethnicity group correspond as follows:
  • Latino — Hispanic or Latino ethnicity of any race
  • Pacific Islander — Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander
  • Indigenous — Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native
  • White — Non-Hispanic White
  • Black — Non-Hispanic Black or African American
  • Asian — Non-Hispanic Asian
  • More than one race — Non-Hispanic more than one race
    • As noted above, Indigenous American deaths are known to be underreported by 34%. According to the CDC, deaths are also known to be underreported for non-Hispanic API (3%) and for Hispanic decedents (3%).
    Some CDC datasets include a "more than one race" racial category and some include an "other" category. We have included the data that indicates more than one race when available, for which there is also an overall population figure available as a denominator when calculating rates. No such denominator is available for calculating rates for the "other" category. The deaths listed in the "other" category constitute less than 1% of total reported deaths.
    Age-Adjusted Rates
    While there are many features of the novel coronavirus that are still unclear, this we know with certainty: The risk of dying from COVID-19 rises sharply with advanced age. According to the CDC, people 65-74 years old have 65 times the risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to people aged 18-29. That risk increases to 140 times higher for people in the 75-84 age bracket, and 340 times for people age 85 or older.

    Due to this steep age gradient to COVID-19 mortality, it is important to consider the varying age distributions of America's racial and ethnic groups. A higher share of White Americans are in the older age brackets than any other group. And even within the same race groups, the age distribution varies by location—with retirement destination states such as Florida having a much higher share of older adults within their White population, for example.

    To remove the role of these age differences from COVID-19 mortality rates, we have also produced age-adjusted rates. There are two main categories of methods used to produce age-adjusted rates: direct and indirect standardization. The direct method uses the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths within a race/ethnicity group, while the indirect method takes the total number of COVID-19 deaths within a race/ethnicity group and applies mortality rates by age group from the national level (all races) to the age distribution of that race/ethnicity group.

    We have used the direct method where possible, but the direct method requires knowing the numbers of deaths for each age grouping for each race and, when calculating at the state level, for each state. For states with smaller populations, there are instances where not all of the age groupings reach the threshold of at least 10 to be released by CDC. For these suppressed groups/places, we have used the indirect method to calculate an age-adjusted rate.

    To evaluate the accuracy of the indirectly age-adjusted rates, we compared direct and indirect rates where possible. Most indirect rates were within 5% of the direct rates. Some were up to 10% different and two were approaching 15% different. The higher errors tended to be for groups/places with lower numbers of COVID-19 deaths. For this reason, we chose to not calculate indirect rates for groups/places with fewer than 200 COVID-19 deaths. The indirect rates tended to be higher than the direct rates, but not universally.

    All of these numbers are available for download on our GitHub, including an indication of whether the age-adjustment for a particular group/place has been directly or indirectly calculated.

    What do the results of these calculations mean? The age-adjusted rates indicate that many younger Americans who are Black, Latino, Indigenous or Pacific Islanders are dying of COVID-19—driving their mortality rates far above that of White and Asian Americans. Despite their relative youthfulness (a protective factor against COVID), their death rates are elevated.

    It is important to note that, while age-adjusted mortality rates help us remove the influence of age differences in racial groups to examine disparities in outcomes, they are not the actual mortality rates experienced by these groups.

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