Impeachment analysis:
The senators running for reelection in 2020
by GABRIEL CORTES | Jan. 22, 2020
As the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump begins, nearly a third of U.S. Senators are also revving the engines of their 2020 reelection campaigns. The APM Research Lab analyzed the class of senators whose terms are expiring this year and compiled the data from their most recent elections.
In total, 31 senators are running for reelection: 20 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Of those, 17 are freshman trying to get reelected for the first time. Analyzing their most recent elections and their states’ voting histories is instructive to how these senators might react as the impeachment trial unfolds.
Some senators particularly stand out: Sens. Doug Jones (D–Ala.) and Cory Gardner (R–Colo.), for example, are both freshman who were elected with less than 50% of the vote. They also both represent their respective states with a senator of the opposite party.
The Research Lab pulled official election data from every state whose senator is running for reelection or retiring in 2020. We compared previous margins of victory, parsed the data for seniority in the senate and highlighted states with senators of opposite parties.
As additional context for the senate impeachment hearings, the Research Lab also compiled all the data into two comprehensive maps that contrast all the most recent Senate elections with the presidential results from 2016 and highlighted the four senators who are retiring as well as the four who are currently running for president.
THE FRESHMEN SENATORS CAMPAIGNING TO KEEP THEIR SEATS
MOST OF THE 20 REPUBLICANS UP FOR REELECTION WERE ELECTED IN THE LAST SIX YEARS
Two-thirds of the senators running for reelection are Republicans, and for most of them, 2020 will be the first time they run for reelection to the Senate. By contrast, of the 11 Democrats running for reelection this cycle, nearly all have served more than one term.
The dot maps below show the differences in seniority among the senators running for reelection for each party. Senators who have served two or more terms are represented by solid circles; freshmen are outlined in the color of their party.
Click the link below each map to see the full list of senators from each party, along with details from each senator’s last election.
Republican senators
seeking reelection
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full list of Republicans
Democratic senators
seeking reelection
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full list of Democrats
DIVIDED REPRESENTATION
SIX SENATORS RUNNING FOR REELECTION REPRESENT THEIR STATES WITH MEMBERS OF THE OPPOSITE PARTY
Sens. Doug Jones (D–Ala.), Martha McSally (R–Ariz.), Cory Gardner (R–Colo.), Susan Collins (R–Maine), Steve Daines (R–Mont.), and Shelley Moore Capito (R–W.Va.) represent their respective states with a senator of the opposite party.
The map below highlights all nine states that have mixed-party delegations in the U.S. Senate, including those represented by the six senators listed above. Hover over each state to see President Trump’s margin of victory in each state after the 2016 election.
NARROW MARGINS
FIVE OF THE SENATORS RUNNING FOR REELECTION IN 2020 WON THEIR PREVIOUS SENATE ELECTION WITH LESS THAN 50% OF THE VOTE
Five of the U.S. Senators—three Republicans and two Democrats—running to keep their seats won their last Senate election with less than 50% of the vote: Sens. Doug Jones (D–Ala.), Dan Sullivan (R–Alaska), Cory Gardner (R–Colo.), Thom Tillis (R–N.C.), and Mark Warner (D–Va.).
Additionally, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D–N.H.) won her 2014 reelection bid with less than a five-point margin. Shaheen earned 51.5% of the votes; her challenger Scott Brown received 48.4%.
Finally, while Sen. Martha McSally (R–Ariz.) was appointed to finish John McCain’s term after his death, she previously ran for the U.S. Senate in 2018. She lost to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema by almost 2.5 points with only 47.6% of the 2.3 million votes cast.
Hover over each of these senator’s states below to see President Donald Trump’s margin of victory in each state after the 2016 election.
THE U.S. SENATE AND THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS, SIDE BY SIDE
Explore the maps below to see the full composition of the current U.S. Senate and the electoral map after the 2016 presidential election.
THE CURRENT MAKE UP OF THE U.S. SENATE
RESULTS OF THE 2016 ELECTION
THE RETIREMENTS
FOUR SENATORS—THREE REPUBLICANS AND ONE DEMOCRAT—ARE NOT RUNNING FOR REELECTION
Sens. Pat Roberts (R–Kan.), Lamar Alexander (R–Tenn.), Tom Udall (D–N.M.), and Mike Enzi (R–Wyo.) are retiring from the Senate in 2020.
Hover over each of these senator’s states below to see President Donald Trump’s margin of victory in each state after the 2016 election.
THE PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS
Four senators are also running to be the Democrats’ presidential nominee in 2020: Sens. Michael Bennet (D–Colo.), Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.), Amy Klobuchar (D–Minn.), and Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.). While Warren and Sanders represent solidly Democratic-leaning states, both Klobuchar and Bennet come from states with more mixed records: President Donald Trump lost Minnesota by less than two points, and lost Colorado by less than five points. Additionally, Bennet represents Colorado with Republican Cory Gardner.