Politics

Minnesota Poll: June 2024

 

Minnesota State Capitol in St. Paul, May 7, 2024, Photo by Ben Hovland| MPR News.

by CRAIG HELMSTETTER and ALYSON CLARY | June 10, 2024 (last updated June 12, 2024)

In partnership with Minnesota Public Radio News, the APM Research Lab is analyzing the results of a statewide poll of likely voters in Minnesota conducted by Mason Dixon Polling and Strategy, on behalf of MPR News, the Star Tribune, and KARE11. The survey was conducted June 3-5, 2024.

What follows is a summary of detailed poll results including some notes on the poll’s methodology. This data will be reported on, with additional context, by our colleagues in MPR News. We will update this page with additional findings as new stories are published on June 11 and 12.

Minnesotans’ current preferences for U.S. president

Results released June 10, 2024

According to the MPR|Star Tribune|KARE11 Minnesota Poll, 45% of Minnesotans who are likely to vote in November would vote for President Biden if the election were held today. Forty-one percent say they would vote for former President Trump. That four percentage point difference is within the survey’s margin of error, making the race a toss-up—especially when considering that seven percent of likely voters say they are still undecided.

Another eight percent indicate that they will vote for another candidate, including six percent who indicated that they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the only non-major party candidate listed by name in the survey.

This new poll is similar to polls we have been tracking in the state so far this election cycle, the last two of which, conducted by KSTP in April and May, had Biden ahead by two percentage points over Trump.

Presidential preference varies somewhat among different groups of Minnesotans. Most obviously, 9 in 10 Democrats indicate that they will vote for Biden and 9 in 10 Republicans say they will vote for Trump.

Nearly 90% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 say that they plan to vote for him again and the same goes for those who voted for Trump in 2020. In both cases, five percent say they remain undecided and another four to five percent indicate that they currently prefer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Voter enthusiasm

Results released June 10, 2024

According to this poll, three-quarters of Minnesota voters are either “very” or “somewhat” enthusiastic about their preferred candidate. This includes majorities of both Biden and Trump voters. However, a much higher proportion of Trump voters say they are “very enthusiatic” about their preferred candidate than is the case among Biden voters: 62% compared with 31%, respectively.

Top issues on the minds of voters

Results released June 10, 2024

The top three issues driving Minnesota voter’s preferences in the president’s race are “protecting democracy,” “the economy and jobs,” and “immigration.”

The top concerns of those currently favoring Biden and those currently favoring Trump differ substantially. “Protecting democracy” is far and away the top concern among Biden voters, selected by nearly half. Among Trump voters two issues stood out: Forty percent indicated that “the economy and jobs” is their top issue, and 33% indicated that “immigration” is currently the top issue motivating their vote choice.

Job approval of President Biden and former President Trump

Results released June 10

Overall, this poll finds that just under half of Minnesota voters approve of Mr. Biden’s performance as president and just over half disapprove. And when asked about Mr. Trump’s job performance during his term as president, the results are very nearly identical.

Ninety-three percent of Democrats approve of Biden’s job performance. Donald Trump’s approval rating is even higher among those in his party.

Biden’s approval rating exceeds 50% among women, younger voters, BIPOC voters, those with a college degree and those living in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. On the flip side, over 50% of men, older voters, those without a college degree, and those living outside of Hennepin and Ramsey counties approve of Trump’s performance during his term in office.

MPR NEWS: New Minnesota Poll has Biden with narrow
edge over Trump as both remain unpopular (June 10)

In Minnesota, Biden’s job approval ratings have hovered between 41% and 48% over the course of his presidency. Similarly, Trump’s approval ratings in Minnesota hovered between 39% and 45% during the course of his presidency. An MPR News|Star Tribune|KARE11 Minnesota Poll done in May of 2020 found that 45% of Minnesota voters approved of Trump’s job performance and 53% disapproved; virtually identical to ratings for Biden in this most recent Minnesota Poll.

Job approval: Senator Klobuchar

Results released June 10

Minnesota’s senior U.S. Senator, Amy Klobuchar is up for reelection this year. This poll did not ask about current preferences of Minnesota voters in this race, but recent polling shows that she has a comfortable lead over Republican candidate Joe Fraser. Since the last of these polls was taken, the state GOP has endorsed Royce White to run against Klobuchar. Both Fraser and White remain active in the race.

A higher proportion of Minnesota voters approve of Senator Amy Klobuchar’s job performance than approve of either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump. And a much lower percent disapprove of Ms. Klobuchar’s performance than is the case for either Biden or Trump. While her job approval ratings are similar to Biden’s among DFLers, notably higher proportions of both independents and Republicans approve of Senator Klobuchar’s job performance.

While Klobuchar maintains a fairly strong approval rating, recent polls including this one have found higher disapproval ratings than the Senator has typically enjoyed.

Perceived fairness of Trump’s recent trial

Results released June 11

Just over half of Minnesotans feel that Mr. Trump’s recent trial in New York, in which he was convicted of falsifying business records to conceal a hush money payment, was conducted in a fair and impartial manner. However, a large minority, 44%, think that he did not receive a fair trial.

Nearly all Biden supporters believe that Trump’s trial was fair. Only a small minority of Trump supporters in this election (5%) or those identifying as Republicans (7%) think that Trump received an impartial trial.

Among different demographic groups, beliefs about the trial largely reflect patterns in their preferred candidate. For example, 61% of Minnesota voters age 18 to 34 think that the trial was impartial, and that drops to 47% among those age 65 or older. Similarly, 53% of Minnesota voters age 18 to 34 plan to vote for Biden, and that drops to 38% among those age 65 and older.

Beliefs about presidential eligibility of convicted felon

Results released June 11

Thirty-seven percent of Minnesota voters believe that someone convicted of a felony should be eligible for the presidency. That is somewhat lower than the 41% who indicated that they would vote for Trump if the election were held today.

Just over half of Minnesota voters think that someone convicted of a felony should not be eligible for the presidency. Eight percent are uncertain.

 
 

Seventy-seven percent of Minnesota voters who support Trump for president say that a felon should be eligible for the presidency. Thirteen percent of Trump’s supporters say that someone with a felony conviction should not be eligible for the presidency, and another ten percent are uncertain.

MPR NEWS: Minnesota Poll: Felony conviction should
disqualify presidential candidates, most say (June 11)

The issue of age among the two leading presidential candidates

Results released June 11

A minority of Minnesotans are comfortable with the ages of both Joe Biden, who is 81 years old, and Donald Trump, who is 77 years old. One in five say that neither of them is “too old” to serve a second term. Among the rest:

  • Half think both are too old to serve a second term as president.

  • One-quarter think Biden is too old (but Trump is not).

  • Two percent thing Trump is too old (but Biden is not).

Two-thirds of Joe Biden’s supporters in Minnesota think that Biden, along with Trump, is too old to serve a second term as president. In comparison, only 26% of Trump’s supporters think that he, along with Biden, is too old for a second term. A majority of Trump supporters think that Biden (but not Trump) is too old.

A majority of all groups of voters think that age is a serious issue in this election, either for both of the two leading candidates or for Biden alone. Even older Minnesota voters, age 65 or older, believe that age should be a limiting factor for the candidates: Half of older voters think both major candidates are too old and another 30% think Biden alone is too old.

Beliefs about the legitimacy of the 2020 election

Results released June 11

Just over two-thirds of Minnesota voters believe that Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election. Nearly one-third question the outcome, including the 25% who believe that Biden’s victory was not legitimate.

 
 

One hundred percent of Minnesota DFLers think the 2020 election, which brought Democrat Joe Biden into office, was legitimate. A majority, 57%, of Minnesota Republicans think the 2020 election was not legitimate. One-quarter of independents think the election was not legitimate.

Forty-three percent of Minnesotans who plan to vote for Mr. Trump are out of step with Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was “rigged”: Thirty percent believe that Biden’s win was legitimate and 13% are not sure.

Support for Israel’s military actions in response to the attack by Hamas on October 7

Results released June 12

Minnesotans are relatively divided on their approval or disapproval of Israel’s military action in Gaza in response to the Oct. 7th attack by Hamas. Forty-four percent of likely Minnesota voters disapprove of Israel’s military action in Gaza, while 41% approve of Israel’s response. The difference of 3 percentage points between the groups of voters holding either view is within the survey’s margin of error.

The greatest differences in opinion among smaller groups comes down to political affiliation and preferred 2024 presidential candidate. For example, 72% of Republicans approve of Israel’s military action in Gaza, while an equal proportion of Democrats disapprove of Israel’s military action. Slightly more Democrats than Republicans are not sure if they approve or disapprove of Israel’s military action.

Besides Republicans, men are the only other group of likely Minnesota voters in our analysis that have a majority who approve of Israel’s military action against Hamas.

A majority of women and BIPOC Minnesotans disapprove of Israel’s military action against Hamas, as do residents of Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

Roughly one-third, each, of likely Minnesota voters between the ages of 18 and 34, and those 35 to 49 approve of Israel’s military action. Among likely Minnesota voters age 50 and older, this proportion increases to nearly half.

Notably, there is not a statistically significant difference between age ranges when it comes to the proportion that disapproves of Israel’s military action.

Beliefs about level of U.S. support for Israel

Results released June 12

When asked their opinions about the amount of support the U.S. is providing to support Israel in its war with Hamas, a similar proportion of Minnesota voters think that the U.S. is providing the right amount of support (37%) as think the U.S. is doing too much (32%).

One in 5 Minnesotans think the U.S. is providing too little support to Israel in its war with Hamas, and 1 in 10 are not sure how they would characterize the level of U.S. support to Israel.

A plurality of likely Biden voters in the upcoming general election, 44%, believe the U.S. is providing the right amount of support to Israel in its war with Hamas. Two-fifths of likely Biden voters believe the U.S. is providing too much support, while less than 1 in 10 likely Biden voters think the U.S. is providing too little support to Israel.

A plurality of likely Trump voters, however, believe the U.S. is providing too little support to Israel in its war against Hamas, followed by 29% who believe the U.S. is providing the right amount of support to Israel. One-quarter of likely Trump voters believe the U.S. is providing too much support to Israel in it’s war against Hamas.

There is not much difference between age ranges for the proportion that believe the U.S. is doing the right amount to support Israel, and again for the proportion that believe the U.S. is doing too much to support Israel.

Younger Minnesotans, those between the ages of 18 and 49, are less inclined than older Minnesotans, age 50 or older, to believe the U.S. is doing too little to support Israel.

MPR NEWS: Voters split on U.S. support of Israel’s
war with Hamas, but it’s not a top issue (June 12)

Beliefs about level of U.S. support for Palestinian civilians

Results released June 12

Minnesotans are evenly divided between those who think the U.S. is doing the right amount to protect Palestinian civilians caught in Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, 36%, and those who think the U.S. is doing too little, 34%. Roughly half that proportion, 18%, think the U.S. is doing too much to protect Palestinian civilians.

Roughly half of likely Biden voters in Minnesota, 48%, believe the U.S. is doing too little to protect Palestinian civilians, while a similar proportion, 44%, believe the U.S. is doing the right amount to protect Palestinian civilians. Only 2% of likely Biden voters think the U.S. is doing too much to protect Palestinian civilians, and 7% are not sure.

In comparison, a plurality of likely Trump voters in Minnesota, 36%, believe the U.S. is doing too much to protect Palestinian civilians, while 29% believe the right amount is being done, and 21% believe too little is being done. Fourteen percent of likely Trump voters, twice the percentage of likely Biden voters, are not sure.

Given the scale of recent protests on college campuses across the U.S., it is notable that younger Minnesotans, 18 to 34, feel similarly to all other age groups, except those age 65 and older, in regard to how much the U.S. is doing to protect Palestinian civilians.

Roughly equivalent proportions within and across the first three age groups believe the U.S. is doing too little to protect Palestinian civilians and about the right amount. One in 7 across those age ranges believe the U.S. is doing too much to protect Palestinian civilians.

The real difference of opinion comes among likely Minneosta voters age 65 and older. While a similar proportion to the other age groups believe the U.S. is doing the right amount to protect Palestinian civilians, a larger share believe the U.S. is doing too much, and a smaller share believe the U.S. is doing too little, compared to other age groups.

Survey methods

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida, designed and executed the survey, including sample construction and screening procedures, data collection, and analysis. The poll was conducted from June 3-5, 2024. A total of 800 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone (154 by landline and 646 by cell phone). All indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in English.

Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The data were not weighted.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.

The table below provides a comparison between the characteristics of survey respondents and Minnesota’s population. Note that this is only a rough point of comparison. The poll is of registered voters who indicated they are likely to vote in the upcoming 2024 election, not the entire voting-eligible population. According to the Minnesota Secretary of State 75% of adults in Minnesota voted in the 2020 election.

Definition of regions used in this report:

Northern Minnesota: Benton, Stearns, Morrison, Todd, Wadena, Otter Tail, Wilkin, Clay, Becker, Hubbard, Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Clearwater, Mahnomen, Norman, Polk, Red Lake, Pennington, Marshall, Roseau, Kittson, Cook, Lake, St. Louis, Koochiching, Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Carlton, Pine, Kanabec, and Mille Lacs counties.

Other metro counties: Scott, Wright, Sherburne, Carver, Dakota, Anoka, Isanti, Chisago and Washington counties.

Hennepin & Ramsey: Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

Southern Minnesota: Goodhue, Rice, Le Sueur, Blue Earth, Waseca, Freeborn, Steele, Dodge, Mower, Fillmore, Olmstead, Houston, Winona, Wabasha, Rock, Nobles, Jackson, Martin, Faribault, Watonwan, Cottonwood, Murray, Pipestone, Lincoln, Lyon, Redwood, Brown, Nicollet, McLeod, Renville, Sibley, Meeker, Kandiyohi, Chippewa, Yellow Medicine, Lac Qui Parle, Swift, Big Stone, Traverse, Stevens, Pope, Douglas, and Grant counties.

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