Politics

Minnesota Poll: September 2022

 

Minnesota State Capitol in St. Paul March 30, 2019, Photo by Andrew Krueger | MPR News

by APM RESEARCH LAB STAFF | Last updated Sept. 21, 2022

In partnership with Minnesota Public Radio News, the APM Research Lab is analyzing the results of a poll conducted by Mason Dixon Polling and Strategy, a pollster with an A- rating according to fivethirtyeight, on behalf of MPR, the Star Tribune, and KARE11. The survey was conducted Sept. 12-14, 2022.

What follows is a summary of detailed poll results including some notes on the poll’s methodology. This data will be reported on, with additional context, by our colleagues in MPR News.

Minnesotans’ ratings of President Biden’s job performance

Results released Sept. 17

According to the MPR|Star Tribune|KARE11 Minnesota Poll, a statistically similar proportion of Minnesota’s likely voters approve and disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance as president (46% and 49%, respectively, within the survey’s 3.5 percentage point margin of error). While Biden is not on the ballot in the upcoming November election, midterms are often seen as a partial referendum on the president’s performance.

This most recent poll is a notable improvement in ratings for Biden than was the case in June, when MinnPost’s poll found that three in five Minnesota voters disapproved of the President’s job performance. An early September poll by KSTP found that Biden’s disapproval rating was at 52 percent in Minnesota.

If the upcoming election is a referendum on the President’s performance, Democrat candidates in Minnesota are not in as much trouble as is the case nationally. According to fivethirtyeight’s poll aggregation of likely or registered voters, the President’s current national disapproval rating (53%) is 10 percentage points higher than his approval rating (43%).

According to the Minnesota Poll, Biden’s job approval ratings are most notably underwater—with more than half disapproving—among men, those age 50 or older, white voters, those without a college degree and those living outside of Hennepin and Ramsey counties. Biden has failed to garner approval among more than two percent of Republicans or those who voted for former President Trump.

Minnesota Governor’s race, including Governor Walz’s job approval ratings

Results released Sept. 17

According to this poll incumbent DFL Governor Tim Walz holds a 7 percentage point lead over Republican challenger Scott Jensen. This margin is just beyond the survey’s margin of error and 10 percent of likely voters still indicate that they are undecided, so this result on its own should not be considered completely decisive—especially since nearly two months of campaigning remain before election day.

 
 

This poll finds particularly strong support for the incumbent Governor among women, younger voters, Minnesotans of color, those with a college degree and those living in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. Over half of likely voters in those groups indicated that they would vote for Walz if the election were held today.

Jensen, on the other hand, currently has a notable lead among male voters and the two-thirds of Minnesota voters who live outside of Hennepin & Ramsey counties—including those in “other metro counties” (defined expansively for this survey to include Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Scott, and Washington counties from the oft-cited Twin Cities 7-county region, as well as Chisago, Isanti, Sherburne and Wright counties to the north).

Only 3 percent of Republicans and 2 percent of those who voted for former President Trump in 2020 indicated that they would vote for Walz, but Walz currently has the edge among the one-third of likely voters who identify as political independents. Only 2 percent of likely DFL supports and no Biden voters expressed support for Jensen.

Previous polls: According to the most recent previous poll, conducted by KSTP in early September, Walz had opened up an 18 percentage point lead. Fifty-one percent of likely voters indicate that they would vote for the incumbent DFLer, compared to 33 percent who say they would vote for Republican challenger Scott Jensen. Four percent indicate that they would vote for someone else and 12% remain undecided. Polls conducted in January, May and June had shown a much tighter race.

Governor Walz’s job approval rating

Overall, this poll finds that a higher proportion of likely Minnesota voters approve than disapprove of Governor Walz’s job performance, by a 10 percentage point margin. Similar to the vote question, approval is particularly high among women, younger voters, voters of color, and those residing in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. Half of political independents express approval for Walz’s job performance, as do virtually all Democrats and nearly all those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Over half of likely voters outside of the Twin Cities metro region disapprove of Walz’s performance as governor, as do nine in ten Republicans and Trump voters.

Top issues on the minds of voters

Results released Sept. 17

The top issues driving likely voters’ preferences in the governors race are the economy and jobs, law and order and crime, and abortion. The other issues listed in the survey—education, climate change, racial justice, the COVID-19 response and marijuana legalization—were each selected by less than ten percent of respondents.

Priorities differed between likely voters indicating they would vote for incumbent DFLer Tim Walz and those expressing support for the candidacy of Republican challenger Scott Jensen. The top issue for Walz voters is abortion (36%), followed by the economy and jobs (20%), with education, climate change and crime all indicated as a top issue by more than one in ten Walz voters.

Jensen’s supporters are primarily focused on one of two issues: the economy (42%) and crime (37%). Ten percent of Jensen voters indicate that abortion is a top issue on their minds motivating their support for the Republican candidate.

Attorney General

Results released Sept. 18

This poll finds that the race for Minnesota’s Attorney General’s office is tied: 46 percent indicate support for incumbent DFLer Keith Ellison, 45 percent indicate support for Republican challenger Jim Schultz, nine percent remain undecided, and the margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points.

 
 

This result is similar to previous polls. According to a poll done by MinnPost in early June, Ellison was statistically tied with his Republican challenger, whether head-to-head against Schultz or Wardlow. (That poll was conducted by Change Research, a pollster rated B- according to fivethirtyeight.) In KSTP’s more recent poll, conducted by A-rated pollster Survey USA, Ellison led Schultz by 6 percentage points, just beyond the survey’s credibility interval. Fourteen percent remained undecided, however.

Results from the MPR|StarTribune| KARE11 Minnesota Poll show that some groups of voters more decisively favor incumbent DFLer Ellison, while others favor Republican challenger Schultz. A majority of women, younger voters, voters of color, college-degree-holders and those residing in Hennepin and Ramsey counties favor Ellison. On the other hand, higher proportions of men, voters at least 50 years old, and those residing outside of Hennepin and Ramsey counties favor Schultz.

Politically, neither Ellison nor Schultz are drawing much support from opposing parties. The one-third of likely voters that identify as independent are roughly split. Although the point estimates (36% for Ellison and 42% for Schultz) appear to favor Schultz, the margin of error associated with this sub-group makes it hard to tell who leads—especially considering that one in five independents remain undecided.

Secretary of State

Results released Sept. 18

The MPR|Star Tribune|KARE11 Minnesota Poll shows incumbent DFLer Steve Simon currently leading the race for Minnesota’s Secretary of State’s office by a margin of eight percentage points over Republican challenger Kim Crockett. Twelve percent of likely voters remain undecided, however, less than two months prior to the election.

This result differs somewhat from KSTP’s early September poll, which found Simon and Crockett statistically tied in the race (42% for Simon 38% for Crocket with a credibility interval of 4.9 percentage points) and 20 percent of likely voters indicating that they were undecided.

According to Minnesota Poll results, a majority of likely voters who are women, age 18 to 34, Minnesotans of color, hold college degrees and reside in Hennepin or Ramsey counties would vote to reelect Simon. Considering the survey’s margin of error, Crockett only has a noteworthy edge among the two-thirds of likely voters in the state who live outside of Hennepin and Ramsey counties, but even there her lead is similar to the percentage of voters who are currently undecided.

Neither Simon (DFL) or Crockett (R) draws much support from the opposite party. Statistically they are tied among likely voters who consider themselves to be independents, when considering the survey’s margin of error and especially when noting that one-quarter of independents are currently undecided about who to support in this race.

Marijuana legalization

Results released Sept. 18

Fifty-three percent of likely voters support the legalization of recreational marijuana in Minnesota, compared to only 36 percent who oppose legalization. That includes half or more of many groups of voters, including both men and women, those younger than 65, both white Minnesotans and Minnesotans of color, and all regions of the state.

Politically, two-thirds of likely voters who identify as Republican indicate that the state should not legalize marijuana for recreational use. Strong majorities of both independents and Democrats say that the state should legalize recreational marijuana.

Sports betting

Results released Sept. 18

Forty-eight percent of likely voters support the legalization of sports betting in Minnesota, compared to only 33 percent who oppose legalization. The issue is far from settled among the electorate, however, with one in five still not sure whether gambling on sports should be made legal.

A plurality of about half of most groups of likely voters indicate that Minnesota should legalize sports betting. This is true for all groups of likely voters analyzed as a part of this poll, except those residing in southern Minnesota, where just as many are oppose legalized sports betting as support it.

Virtually equal proportions of Republicans and Democrats say that the state should legalize sports betting.

Trust in election

Results released Sept. 18

Over half of likely voters in Minnesota indicate that they have a “high amount” of confidence that votes will be accurately counted in the upcoming November midterm elections. This also means, however, that approaching half of the electorate has at least some level of skepticism that their votes will be accurately counted.

The majority of skeptics, one-quarter of all likely voters, say that they have a “moderate amount” of confidence in the upcoming election. Thirteen percent say they do not have much confidence in vote counting in the midterms, while two percent indicate that they have no confidence at all that votes will be accurately counted. Another two percent indicate they are “not sure”—evidence of uncertainty about election operations.

Confidence in the accuracy of vote counting is especially high among Democrats and those who voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Conversely, confidence is especially low among Republicans and those who voted for former President Trump in 2020. Over one-third of those who voted for Trump indicate little to know confidence that votes will be accurately counted in the midterms.

Election skepticism is higher among men than women, older than younger voters, white Minnesotans than Minnesotans of color, those without a college degree, and those residing outside of Hennepin and Ramsey counties. Hennepin and Ramsey counties are home to Minneapolis and St. Paul, respectively, and include about one-third of the state’s voters.

Abortion

Results released Sept. 19

According to the MPR|Star Tribune|KARE11 Minnesota Poll, abortion is one of the top three issues on voters minds less than two months from this fall’s midterm election. The poll also finds that half of Minnesota voters oppose the Supreme Court’s recent overturn of the earlier Roe v. Wade decision, which guaranteed the right to abortion. Forty percent support the overturn and eight percent are unsure.

Similarly, over half of the state’s likely voters think abortion should generally be legal, including 30 percent who say it should be legal in all cases and another 25 percent who indicate that it should be legal in most cases. Forty-one percent think abortion should be illegal in most cases and only two percent think abortion should be illegal in all cases.

The stance of Minnesota voters towards abortion is similar to that of all Americans, 53 percent of whom indicate that abortion should be legal, including 29 percent who say it should be "always legal” according to our analysis of the McCourtney Institute for Democracy’s May 2022 Mood of the Nation Poll. Nationally, however, a notably higher proportion are completely opposed to any form of abortion, with 12 percent indicating that it should be “illegal without any exceptions,” compared to the 2 percent of voters who indicate “illegal in all cases” in the Minnesota Poll.

The opinions that different groups of Minnesota voters have about the overturn of Roe v. Wade mirrors their opinions on the legality of abortion. For example:

  • A higher proportion of women than men oppose the overturn of Roe (57% to 46%), and a much higher proportion of women than men think abortion should be legal in all cases (37% to 23%).

  • A higher proportion of likely voters age 18 to 34 oppose the overturn of Roe than is the case among voters age 35+, and voters age 18 to 34 are also more likely to support legal abortion.

  • Over two-thirds of voters of color oppose the overturn of Roe compared with half of white voters, and nearly half of voters of color think abortion should be legal in all cases compared to about one quarter of white voters.

On abortion, the opinions of the one-third of likely voters who identify as political opinions tilt somewhat toward the views of Democrats, with majorities of independents opposing the overturn of Roe v. Wade and majorities favoring the legality of abortion, at least in most cases.

About four in every five Republican voters support the overturn of Roe v. Wade. This is also the case among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Public safety and crime

Results released Sept. 20

Minnesota Poll results indicate that over half of Minnesota voters feel that crime in their community has increased in the last few years, but few than one in five indicate that they have personally feared a threat in their own neighborhoods. According to recent crime statistics published by Minnesota Compass, the serious crime rate is up only in the Twin Cities seven-county region, while violent crime is up for the entire state.

Many Minnesota voters feel that crime has stayed the same over the last few years, and only one percent think crime has been reduced.

More detailed analysis of the poll results show that there are not large differences between different groups of voters in terms of proportions who feel that crime has been on the increase. Half or more of both men and women, voters in all age groups, white voters and voters of color, those with and without a college degree and all regions of the state feel that crime has increased in their community.

The exception is that perceptions of local crime rates do vary along political lines. Far more Republicans than Democrats feel that crime has increased in their communities (64% versus 44%) and even more of those who voted for Trump in 2020 perceive an increase in crime than is the case among those who voted for Biden.

Statistically similar proportions of both male and female voters, voters of different ages, those with and without college degrees indicate that they have feared threats or attacks in their neighborhood. The proportion perceiving personal threats to safety is even similar for Republicans, independents and Democrats.

In this case, the biggest notable differences have to do with race and region. Just over one-quarter of voters of color, and just over one-quarter of those residing in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, indicate fearing threats or personal attacks in the past year. This compares to 15 percent of whites, 15 percent of those in Northern Minnesota and even fewer residing in other metro counties and southern Minnesota (see the methods section for a map of the regional definitions used in this analysis).

Inflation

Results released Sept. 21

Recent price increases have added stress to the lives of a vast majority of Minnesotans. The stress has been “minor” for half of voters and “major” for one-third. Only 16 percent of likely voters in Minnesota have experienced “no stress” according to results of the MPR News| Star Tribune| KARE11 poll conducted earlier this month by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy.

The poll also found that half of Minnesota voters think inflation will get worse over the next year. The other half was roughly split between those who think things will get better and those who think that things will stay the same.

Financial stress levels were similar between men and women, various age groups, both white and Black, Indigenous and people of color (BIPOC) Minnesotans, as well as those who hold a college degree versus those who do not. (While point estimates differ somewhat between these groups, the margin of error associated with the survey effectively washes out any meaningful statistical difference between these groups.)

There are differences between some groups, however. A smaller portion of Minnesota voters residing in Hennepin and Ramsey counties express “major stress” related to recent inflation than is the case in other parts of the state.

An even bigger difference exists between voters who identify as Republican and those who identify as Democrat. Forty-five percent of Republicans indicate that they have experienced major financial stress recently from inflation, perhaps explaining why “the economy and jobs” is the top-rated election issue on the minds of Republicans.

Thirty-eight percent of independents indicate that they have experienced major stress from inflation, making independents’ experiences with inflation closer to Republicans than Democrats. Fewer than one in five Democrats indicate experiencing major financial stress due to inflation.

Expectations about the direction that inflation will go over the next year are also correlated with political affiliations. Only five percent of Republicans, and five percent of those who voted for Trump in 2020, think inflation will get better over the next year. Democrats are much more optimistic about inflation, with 44 percent expecting “the situation with rising prices” to get better.

Higher proportions of women, voters of color and those living in Hennepin and Ramsey counties think that inflation will get better than is the case among their respective male, white and less urban counter-parts in Minnesota.

Survey methods

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida, designed and executed the survey, including sample construction and screening procedures, data collection, and analysis. The poll was conducted from Sept. 12-14, 2022. A total of 800 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone (221 by landline and 579 by cell phone). All indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers.

Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The data were not weighted.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.

The table below provides a comparison between the characteristics of survey respondents and Minnesota’s population. Note that this is only a rough point of comparison. The poll is of registered voters who indicated they are likely to vote in the upcoming 2022 midterm election, not all adults. According to the Minnesota Secretary of State 61% of adults in Minnesota voted in the 2018 midterms.

Definition of regions used in this report:

Northern Minnesota: Benton, Stearns, Morrison, Todd, Wadena, Otter Tail, Wilkin, Clay, Becker, Hubbard, Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Clearwater, Mahnomen, Norman, Polk, Red Lake, Pennington, Marshall, Roseau, Kittson, Cook, Lake, St. Louis, Koochiching, Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Carlton, Pine, Kanabec, and Mille Lacs counties.

Other metro counties: Scott, Wright, Sherburne, Carver, Dakota, Anoka, Isanti, Chisago and Washington counties.

Hennepin & Ramsey: Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

Southern Minnesota: Goodhue, Rice, Le Sueur, Blue Earth, Waseca, Freeborn, Steele, Dodge, Mower, Fillmore, Olmstead, Houston, Winona, Wabasha, Rock, Nobles, Jackson, Martin, Faribault, Watonwan, Cottonwood, Murray, Pipestone, Lincoln, Lyon, Redwood, Brown, Nicollet, McLeod, Renville, Sibley, Meeker, Kandiyohi, Chippewa, Yellow Medicine, Lac Qui Parle, Swift, Big Stone, Traverse, Stevens, Pope, Douglas, and Grant counties.


NOTE: On Sept. 20 we re-labeled “metro suburbs” to the more accurate “other metro counties.” We also corrected the mislabeled “DLF” to “DFL” in some graphs.

Thoughts? Questions?

We want to hear from you! Leave us a message below.