Politics

Minnesota’s presidential and U.S. Senate races, and top voting issues

Detailed findings from the September 2024 Minnesota Poll

 

Minnesota State Capitol in St. Paul, May 11, 2024, Photo by Ben Hovland| MPR News.

by CRAIG HELMSTETTER | Sept. 23, 2024

In partnership with Minnesota Public Radio News, the APM Research Lab is analyzing the results of a statewide poll of likely voters in Minnesota conducted by Mason Dixon Polling and Strategy, on behalf of MPR News, the Minnesota Star Tribune and KARE11. The survey was conducted Sept. 16-18, 2024.

What follows is a summary of detailed poll results including some notes on the poll’s methodology. Key findings from this data has been reported on, with additional context, by our colleagues in MPR News. Both MPR News and the APM Research Lab will publish additional findings from this poll on Sept. 24 and 25.

Minnesotans’ current preferences for U.S. president

According to a new MPR|Star Tribune|KARE11 Minnesota Poll, 48% of Minnesotans who are likely to vote in November would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris if the election were held today. Forty-three percent say they would vote for former President Donald Trump. That five percentage point difference is within the survey’s margin of error, making the race a toss-up — especially when considering that seven percent of likely voters say they are still undecided.

Only two percent of likely voters say they will be voting for third parties. In the June Minnesota Poll six percent indicated a preference for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who was running as an independent. While his name will appear on the ballot in Minnesota, he was not explicitly named in this poll since he has suspended his campaign.

The poll was the first taken in the state entirely after the Sept. 10 presidential debate that Harris was widely considered to win. The results are very similar to the 11 others conducted in Minnesota since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, including the six conducted since Harris added Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to the ticket.

Harris consistently comes out on top in all 12 polls taken to date, by an average margin of 6.3 percentage points. Notably, however, the results of nine of the polls, when taken on their own, show the race too close to call.

For details and a continually updated look at the polling trends in the state this election cycle, see: Minnesota Poll Watch 2024 (MPR News).

Presidential preference varies among different groups of Minnesotans. Despite reports of some Republicans endorsing Harris, only two percent of Republican likely voters currently plan to do so. Among both Democrats and Republicans over 90% currently express preference for their party’s endorsed candidate.

A sizable chunk of Minnesota independents — 14% — remain undecided. Nearly all of the remainder split their support between the two major party candidates. Independents make up 35% of Minnesota’s electorate according to this poll.

The Trump-Vance ticket currently has the lead among men, those age 65 and older, and likely voters in Greater Minnesota. The Harris-Walz ticket has a clear lead among younger Minnesotans, those identifying as Black, Indigenous and people of color (BIPOC), those with a college degree and likely voters living in Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

Voter enthusiasm

According to this poll, three-quarters of Minnesota voters are very enthusiastic about their preferred candidate. This includes a statistically similar 79% of Harris’ supporters and 73% of Trump supporters.

The previous Minnesota Poll, conducted in early June when President Biden was the Democratic candidate, showed a much different picture. At that time less than one-third of Biden’s supporters were very enthusiastic about his candidacy — less than half the percentage of Harris’ supporters now expressing strong enthusiasm about her campaign.

Note that some of the gain in enthusiasm likely has to do with the closer proximity to actual election day, since the percentage of Trump supporters now expressing that they are very enthusiastic is up 10 percentage points over the June results.

Issues on the minds of voters

The June Minnesota Poll found that “The top three issues driving Minnesota voter’s preferences in the president’s race were protecting democracy, the economy and jobs, and immigration.”

Abortion was further down on the list, but has turned up as a top issue in other recent statewide polls. For example, it was the second most popular “top issue” selected by respondents to the August poll conducted by KSTP, KAAL and WDIO. Additionally, abortion was one of the flashpoints in the presidential debate earlier this month.

MPR NEWS: Harris up on Trump but not by much
as Democratic enthusiasm spikes

Voter issue: Democracy under threat

In the June Minnesota Poll, 27% of likely voters in Minnesota indicated that “protecting democracy” was the top issue on their mind in the upcoming presidential election, making it the most commonly selected issue on the list of nine included in the poll.

This poll followed up on that finding by asking Minnesota voters to weigh in on whether they feel that democracy is currently under threat. A two-thirds majority feel that democracy is currently under threat. Only one-fourth say it is not, and the remainder indicate that they are not sure.

The feeling that democracy is under threat is held by strong majorities of all major groupings of Minnesota voters that we assessed in the survey, including both men and women, all age groups, both white and BIPOC Minnesotans, those with and without a college degree, and those in all four broad regions of the state.

Protecting democracy was the top issue for Democrats by a long shot according to the June Minnesota poll. It was noted as the top issue by only four percent of Republicans.

Interestingly, this poll shows that a majority of all political persuasions — Democrats, Republicans and independents alike — agree that democracy is currently threatened. Notably, however, that perception is even more common among Democrats (81%) than either independents (64%) or Republicans (58%). Similarly, an even stronger majority of those favoring the Harris-Walz campaign believe that democracy is under threat than is the case among those favoring Trump-Walz (83% and 56%, respectively).


Voter issue: Rating the economy

In the June Minnesota Poll, 26% of likely voters in Minnesota indicated that “the economy and jobs” was the top issue on their mind in the upcoming presidential election, making it the second most commonly selected issue on the list of nine included in the poll. It was the issue most salient for Trump’s supporters at the time.

This poll shows that very few Minnesota voters rate national economic conditions as “excellent.” Half give the economy the middle ratings of “good” and “fair.” A two-fifths plurality say the national economy is “poor.”

Ratings of the national economy align with the partisan leanings of Minnesota voters. Over half of Democrats and Harris-Walz supporters rate the nation’s economy as “good.” On the other hand, a two-thirds majority of Republicans, and 4 in 5 Trump-Vance supporters rate the national economy as “poor.”

Setting aside the partisan groupings, the views of most other large groups of Minnesota voters that we are able to assess in this survey are more similar than dissimilar. In most cases a plurality rates the economy as “poor,” and roughly half indicate that conditions are either “good” or “fair.”

Some exceptions include that BIPOC Minnesotans give the national economy a stronger rating than do white Minnesotans. This is despite the fact that the median income of BIPOC Minnesotans is much lower than that of white Minnesotans. Less surprisingly, those with a four-year college degree or more education, who tend to have higher incomes, give the economy somewhat stronger ratings than is the case among Minnesota voters who have not attained a college degree.

Voter issue: Illegal immigration

In the June Minnesota Poll, 15% of likely voters in Minnesota indicated that “immigration” was the top issue on their mind in the upcoming presidential election, making it the third most commonly selected issue on the list of nine included in the poll. It was the second issue most salient for Trump’s supporters at the time, selected by one-third (compared to only one percent of Biden voters).

The September Minnesota Poll follows up on that finding by asking Minnesota voters “How serious of a problem do you think the issue of illegal immigration is for the country right now?” In response, nearly half indicated they see illegal immigration as a “very serious” issue, with another one-third indicating “somewhat serious.”

While a majority of all major groups of Minnesota voters that we are able to assess in this poll view illegal immigration as a problem, groups differ on the severity of those ratings. Most notably, 9 in 10 Republicans view illegal immigration as a “very serious” problem for the nation right now, as do 9 in 10 Trump-Vance supporters. While only about 1 in 10 DFLers and Harris-Walz supporters concur with that assessment, half of those groups do view illegal immigration as a “somewhat serious” problem.

Roughly half of several groups in Minnesota votes view illegal immigration as a very serious national problem, including men, voters age 50 or older, white voters, those without a four-year college degree and those living outside of Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

Voter issue: Abortion

Abortion has turned up as a top issue for Minnesota voters in other recent recent polling, including the August poll conducted by KSTP, KAAL and WDIO. Additionally, abortion was one of the flashpoints in the presidential debate earlier this month, which including specific reference to Minnesota’s abortion policies.

This poll follows up on one key aspect of abortion policy that contrasts the Harris and Trump campaigns: whether laws should be nationally uniform and determined by the federal government, or delegated to the states and therefore allowed to differ. Minnesota voters are evenly divided on this question, with just under half supporting uniform federal regulation and just under half supporting state-to-state variation.

Abortion policy is another area where Minnesota voters differ dramatically by political affiliation, including by their preferred presidential candidate, but less so by other characteristics.

Eight in ten Minnesota Democrats supports uniform federal regulation of abortion, as do 8 in 10 voters supporting the Harris-Walz ticket. Three quarters of Republicans and 8 in 10 Trump-Vance supporters favor allowing state-to-state variation in abortion laws.

A higher proportion of women than men support uniform federal regulation of abortion. An even bigger gap exists between BIPOC and white voters in Minnesota, with two-thirds of BIPOC voters supporting uniform national policies compared to 38% of white voters.

Which candidate is trusted most on these major issues?

Likely voters are divided on who they trust more to address the major issues highlighted in the September Minnesota Poll. Slightly more voters indicate that they trust Vice President Harris on abortion-related issues and protecting democracy, while slightly more trust former President Trump to handle the economy and immigration.

While this poll does not identify how many voters might be “single issue voters” — basing their vote entirely around how much they trust a given candidate to address the issue they think is most important — it does show how closely aligned candidates are with the major policy issues included in this poll. For example, Donald Trump has emphasized favoring state-level regulation of abortion, and most voters who favor that position trust Trump more to handle abortion-related issues.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

As shown in the table below, Minnesota voters’ trust in the two candidates is closely aligned with their political affiliations as well as which candidate they currently plan to vote for. There are less dramatic group-level differences beyond those explicitly partisan characteristics:

  • Higher proportions of men, older voters, white voters, those without a four-year college degree and those living outside of Hennepin and Ramsey indicate trusting Trump on these major issues.

  • Higher proportions of women, younger voters, BIPOC voters, those with a four-year college degree and those living in Hennepin and Ramsey counties indicate trusting Harris on these major issues.

Favorability of Vice President Harris and former President Trump

Results released Sept. 23, 2024

Overall, this poll finds that just under half of Minnesota voters view Vice President Harris favorably and just over half have an unfavorable opinion of her. And when asked about former President Trump’s favorability, the results are very nearly identical.

Ninety-one percent of Democrats give Harris a favorable rating. An even higher 96% of Republicans rate Trump favorably. Only two to three percent of each party identify the opposite party’s candidate favorably.
Harris’ favorability exceeds 50% among women, those age 50 or younger, BIPOC voters, those with a four-year college degree and those living in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. On the flip side, over 50% of men, older voters, those without a college degree and those living outside of Hennepin and Ramsey counties have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump.

The U.S. Senate race

Results released Sept. 23, 2024

According to the MPR|Star Tribune|KARE11 Minnesota Poll, 51% of Minnesotans who are likely to vote in November would vote for incumbent Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar if the election were held today. Forty percent say they would vote for Republican challenger Royce White. That eleven percentage point difference is beyond the survey’s margin of error. Eight percent of voters say they are currently undecided.

These poll results are similar to the results of seven other public polls conducted about the race to date, all of which show Klobuchar in the lead, by an overall average of 11.9 percentage points. Only two polls conducted to date, both conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of The Telegraph, show the race as within the margin of error.

For details and a continually updated look at the polling trends in the state this election cycle, see: Minnesota Poll Watch 2024 (MPR News).

MPR News: Klobuchar with comfortable lead in U.S. Senate race

While Klobuchar has sewn up support from 99% of Democrats, only 83% of Republicans currently say they would vote for White, a relative political newcomer with some controversial positions. Most of the remainder are undecided.

Notably, five percent of Minnesota voters who favor Trump in the presidential election say they would vote for Klobuchar if the election were held today, compared to the less than two percent of Harris voters who would split their ticket and vote for White.

According to this poll, White leads the race among some groups of Minnesota voters, including males and those residing outside of the Twin Cities metro area. Klobuchar, however, dominates among women, younger voters, BIPOC voters, those with a four-year college degree and those living in Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

Survey methods

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida, designed and executed the survey, including sample construction and screening procedures, data collection and analysis. The poll was conducted from Sept. 16 to 18, 2024. A total of 800 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone (approximately 150 by landline and 650 by cell phone). All indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in English.

Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The data were not weighted.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95% probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.

The table below provides a comparison between the characteristics of survey respondents and Minnesota’s population. Note that this is only a rough point of comparison. The poll is of registered voters who indicated they are likely to vote in the upcoming 2024 election, not the entire voting-eligible population. According to the Minnesota Secretary of State, 75% of adults in Minnesota voted in the 2020 election.

Definition of regions used in this report:

Northern Minnesota: Benton, Stearns, Morrison, Todd, Wadena, Otter Tail, Wilkin, Clay, Becker, Hubbard, Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Clearwater, Mahnomen, Norman, Polk, Red Lake, Pennington, Marshall, Roseau, Kittson, Cook, Lake, St. Louis, Koochiching, Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Carlton, Pine, Kanabec, and Mille Lacs counties.

Other metro counties: Scott, Wright, Sherburne, Carver, Dakota, Anoka, Isanti, Chisago and Washington counties.

Hennepin & Ramsey: Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

Southern Minnesota: Goodhue, Rice, Le Sueur, Blue Earth, Waseca, Freeborn, Steele, Dodge, Mower, Fillmore, Olmstead, Houston, Winona, Wabasha, Rock, Nobles, Jackson, Martin, Faribault, Watonwan, Cottonwood, Murray, Pipestone, Lincoln, Lyon, Redwood, Brown, Nicollet, McLeod, Renville, Sibley, Meeker, Kandiyohi, Chippewa, Yellow Medicine, Lac Qui Parle, Swift, Big Stone, Traverse, Stevens, Pope, Douglas, and Grant counties.

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