Politics

Minnesotans’ plans for voting and thoughts on election security

Detailed findings from the September 2024 Minnesota Poll

 

Received absentee ballots sit in mail bins before being scanned for counting on election night at the Ramsey County Absentee Ballot Count Center in St. Paul, Minn. on Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020., Photo by Evan Frost | MPR News.

by ALYSON CLARY | Sept. 25, 2024

In partnership with Minnesota Public Radio News, the APM Research Lab analyzed the results of a statewide poll of likely voters in Minnesota. The “Minnesota Poll” was conducted Sept. 16-18, 2024 by Mason Dixon Polling and Strategy, on behalf of MPR News, the Minnesota Star Tribune and KARE11. Click here for additional background on the poll’s methodology.

Minnesotans’ current plans for casting their ballots

According to a new MPR|Star Tribune|KARE11 Minnesota Poll, 74% of Minnesotans who are likely to vote in November plan to do so in person on Election Day. Thirteen percent of likely voters plan to vote by mail-in absentee ballot, and 11% intend to drop off their ballot before Election Day. Two percent of likely voters are unsure how they will cast their ballot in the upcoming Presidential Election.

Slightly more Republican voters in Minnesota plan to cast their ballot in person on Election Day than DFL voters, 80% to 74%. Independent voters in Minnesota are least likely to cast their ballots in person on Election Day.

A larger proportion of DFL voters plan to cast their ballot by dropping it off before Election Day in a secure drop box or at their local elections office than Republican voters, 14% to 8%. Eleven percent of independent voters said they intended to drop off their ballot before Election Day, which falls within the poll’s margin of error when compared to either DFL voters or Republican voters.

MPR News: 2024 voter help desk

Notably, the same proportion of Republican voters and DFL voters, 11%, said they would cast their vote through a mail-in absentee ballot. Sixteen percent of independent voters plan to cast an absentee ballot.

The poll did not find notable differences between groups of voters in terms of their planned method of voting along lines of gender, race and ethnicity, age, education or region of residence.

Mail-in ballot security

According to this poll, nearly 2 in 5 likely Minnesota voters believe mail-in absentee ballots in Minnesota are vulnerable to significant levels of fraud. Half of likely voters, however, believe mail-in absentee ballots are sufficiently protected against significant levels of fraud, and more than 1 in 10 voters are not sure.

Beliefs in the security of mail-in absentee ballots are sharply divided by political affiliation. Eighty-three percent of DFL likely voters believe mail-in ballots in Minnesota are adequately protected from significant levels of fraud compared to only 17% of Republican likely voters.

Seventy-eight percent of Republican voters, on the flip side, believe that mail-in absentee ballots in Minnesota are susceptible to significant levels of fraud, compared to only five percent of DFL voters.

Independent voters in Minnesota are relatively split in their beliefs. Forty-four percent believe mail-in absentee ballots in Minnesota are adequately protected against significant levels of fraud, and 40% of independent voters believe the system is vulnerable to fraud.

Only five percent of Minnesota’s Republican likely voters report they are not sure about mail-in absentee ballot security or lack thereof. In comparison, 17% of independent voters and 13% of DFL voters say they are not sure when it comes to absentee ballot security.

More women than men believe mail-in ballots are secure, as do more Black, Indigenous and people of color (BIPOC) voters than white voters.

A likely voter’s educational attainment and region of residence also show differences in their belief around mail-in ballot security. A majority, 57%, of college graduates believe mail-in absentee ballots in the state are adequately protected from fraud, while 32% believe the system is vulnerable to significant fraud. Those without a college degree are divided in their opinions, 44 percent of this demographic believe mail-in absentee ballots are secure from fraud while the same proportion believe those ballots are vulnerable to fraud.

In terms of region of residence, a strong majority of likely voters who live in Hennepin or Ramsey counties, 62%, believe mail-in ballots are secure from fraud. Residents in these two counties comprise one-third of Minnesota’s total population. A much higher proportion of likely voters living in greater Minnesota and the suburban and exurban counties surrounding Hennepin and Ramsey believe that mail-in ballots are vulnerable to fraud.

Confidence in the 2024 presidential election count

Roughly eighty percent of likely Minnesota voters are confident the votes in the 2024 presidential election will be counted accurately. Fifty percent of likely voters expressed “high confidence” in the accuracy of the future vote count.

One in 5 likely voters expressed low or no confidence that the votes in the upcoming presidential election will be counted accurately.

Like with the question on the security of absentee mail-in ballots, there are big differences by political affiliation in the confidence likely voters have in the accuracy of the 2024 presidential election vote count.

Ninety-nine percent of DFL voters are confident that the votes in the upcoming election will be counted accurately compared to 60% of Republican voters. And 85% of DFL voters express high confidence in the accuracy of the vote count compared to only 17% of Republican voters. However, a plurality of Republican voters, 43%, express moderate confidence in the accuracy of the vote count.

A majority of independent voters also are confident that the votes in the election will be counted accurately, 41% have high confidence in this outcome and 32% have moderate confidence.

Nearly 25 percent of Republican likely voters have no confidence in the accuracy of the vote count in the presidential election. Fourteen percent of independent likely voters and one percent of DFL likely voters also have no confidence in the accuracy of the election results.

Except for Republican likely voters, in all other demographic groups either a majority or plurality of likely voters have high confidence that the votes in the 2024 presidential election will be counted accurately.

That being said, in the degree of confidence expressed by the various groups. Fifty-six percent of women have high confidence in an accurate count compared to 43% of men. Sixty-seven percent of BIPOC voters express high confidence compared to 47% of white voters. And 57% of voters with a college degree express high confidence in the vote count compared to 44 percent of those without a four-year college degree.

Sixty-two percent of likely voters in Hennepin and Ramsey counties express high confidence in an accurate vote count compared to a plurality in the rest of the metro, Southern Minnesota and Northern Minnesota.

Sept. 2024 Minnesota Poll: Methods

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