Poll: In the midst of a tight presidential race, Trump draws support from voters disillusioned with democracy
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New Mood of the Nation Poll finds Harris with a narrow three percentage point lead, within the survey’s margin of error
by ERIC PLUTZER and CRAIG HELMSTETTER | Oct. 8, 2024
The McCourtney Institute for Democracy’s new Mood of the Nation Poll finds Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a close race for the national popular vote.
Forty-eight percent of the likely electorate plans to vote for Harris, while 45% plan to vote for Trump. Given the poll's ±4.2 percentage point margin of error, as well as the five percent of the electorate that remains undecided, the lead in the race is unclear.
This poll also finds that voters’ preferences in the presidential race are related to their opinions about democracy as a system of governance. The majority of both candidate's supporters are also democracy supporters. However, Harris leads among voters who express strong support for democracy as well as those with moderate support for democracy, while Trump has a clear lead among those disillusioned with democracy.
Close presidential race
The narrow three percentage point margin of likely voters who plan to vote for Democratic Party candidate Vice President Kamala Harris (47.6%) compared to those who plan to vote for Republican Party candidate former President Donald Trump (44.7%) is within this survey's 4.2 percentage point margin of error. Five percent of voters are undecided, and three percent indicate that they plan to vote for someone else.
With the 538 national polling average showing Harris up by 2.5 percentage points and the New York Times polling average showing Harris leading by a three percentage point margin, these results are very similar to those from other national polls.
The results of this poll show that Harris has somewhat more support than Trump among traditional Democratic Party voters, including women, those under age 45, Black and Hispanic voters, and those with a college degree or higher.
Trump, on the other hand, garners more support than Harris among traditionally Republican leaning groups including men, those age 45 and older, white voters, and those without a college degree.
Neither candidate is drawing much support from voters expressing affiliation with the opposing major party. Trump has a lead among independent voters, 39% to 27%, but 20% of that group remains uncommitted. (Independents in this poll are narrowly defined to exclude those leaning toward the Democratic or Republican parties.)
Most voters express strong support for democracy as a system of governance
This poll included a series of questions that allow us to better understand whether, and to what extent, democracy is on the ballot. The answers to these questions reveal divisions among U.S. voters.
The poll asks voters to agree or disagree with the statement: “Democracy may have problems, but it is the best system of government.”
Overall, 79% of likely voters agreed that democracy is the best system of government, with 54% agreeing strongly. However, 21% either took a neutral stance or disagreed.
A second question, appearing later in the poll, asked voters to choose among three statements, and then asked them how strongly they held that opinion. The results of this sequence show that 61% felt very strongly that democracy is the best system in all circumstances and 23% felt somewhat strongly. As in previous Mood of the Nation Polls, a substantial number of Americans said that a dictatorship could be good in certain circumstances or that they were indifferent between democracy and dictatorship.
In their own words
To better understand the subset of Americans’ disenchanted with democracy, we asked respondents to explain their answers in their own words. Many of those open to a dictatorship explained their answer in terms of the inability of citizens to effectively participate in governance.
For example, a 34-year-old from New York told us “Sometimes people don't know what to decide and what is the best for them,” while a 65-year-old from Indiana said, “Too many uninformed people vote the wrong people into office.”
Others were attracted to the possibility that a dictator might bring order to society, like a woman from Illinois who said, “I think it could help with the crime in this nation.”
…but one in four likely voters show weak commitment to democracy
From the two questions, we created a summary of overall support for democracy as a system of government:
We categorized those who strongly supported democracy in both questions as strong supporters of democracy. They constitute 46% of likely voters.
The 26% of voters who supported democracy in answering both questions, but not always strongly, are moderate supporters of democracy.
The remaining 27% of voters – those with weak support for democracy – either did not agree with the statement that "Democracy may have problems, but it is the best system of government," indicated that sometimes “a dictatorship could be a good thing,” or indicated that living in a democracy or dictatorship “makes no difference to me.”
Michael Berkman, Penn State Professor of Political Science and director of Penn State’s McCourtney Institute for Democracy noted that observers have “expressed increasing concern about the erosion of citizen support for democratic institutions and practices, and these results add new evidence for the conclusion that support for democracy in the United States has declined in recent decades.”
As noted earlier, while strong supporters of democracy supported both major candidates, voters whose support for democracy is weak, including those open to dictatorship, disproportionately intend to vote for former President Trump.
Unlike many politically related opinions, support for democracy as a system of governance does not fall neatly along traditional partisan lines. For example, while a somewhat larger proportion of Democrats than Republicans are strong supporters of democracy (53% compared to 45%), the group that stands out most is political independents. A plurality of independent voters, 43%, show weak support for democracy.
The modest difference between Democrats and Republicans in support for democracy widens slightly when the alignment is around this year’s presidential candidates. One-third of those favoring Republican Donald Trump are weak democracy supporters, compared to half that proportion among those favoring Democrat Kamala Harris.
The proportion of voters aged 65 or older who show strong support for democracy as a system of government is much higher than among all younger age groups. In addition, support for democracy is higher among those with a college degree than it is among others.
“The pattern is concerning,” noted Berkman. “Limited support from young citizens who are not yet active participants in civic life is something we have seen for about 20 years. But but wide splits between supporters of the two major candidates puts us in new, potentially volatile, environment.”
PARTNER FOR THIS SURVEY
The McCourtney Institute for Democracy at Penn State promotes scholarship and practical innovations that defend and advance democracy in the United States and abroad. Through teaching, research and public outreach, the Institute leverages the resources of Penn State and partners around the world to foster a model of deliberation, policymaking and responsiveness that is passionate, informed and civil.
The Institute’s Mood of the Nation poll offers a unique approach to public opinion polling. It allows Americans to speak in their own words through open-ended questions that focus on emotions like anger and hope, as well as commitment to constitutional principles.
For earlier findings from our collaboration with the McCourtney Institute, see our Mood of the Nation landing page.