Poll: Storms, heat, drought, floods and wildfires all common experiences in 2023
Even more Democrats than Republicans report experiencing severe weather events
by CRAIG HELMSTETTER and RITHWIK KALALE | March 21, 2024
Editors note: This is the first in a two-part series on Americans’ experiences with- and policy preferences related to- severe weather. Read the second part of the series “Poll: A majority support federal involvement in dealing with water shortages and flooding”
Two-thirds of American adults indicate that they experienced at least one of five major weather events in 2023, according to the McCourtney Institute for Democracy’s latest Mood of the Nation Poll, conducted with 1,000 American adults from January 11 to 17, 2024.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that 2023 was the fifth hottest in U.S. history and the country saw a record 28 separate billion-dollar weather disasters. It turns out these conditions were not at all lost on the American people.
In response to the question, “in the past 12 months, has your local community experienced the following?” the survey found:
45% had experienced severe storms,
40% had experienced “long periods of unusually hot weather,”
20% had experienced droughts or water shortages,
19% had experienced severe flooding, and
12% who experienced severe wildfires.
Forty percent of American adults indicate that they experienced two or more of these extreme weather events in 2023, including a small minority who indicated that they had been hit by all five. On average, respondents indicated that they had experienced 1.4 of the severe weather events listed in the survey.
While it may be that different demographic segments of the U.S. population are more vulnerable to the impacts of severe weather, this survey of 1,000 nationwide is not sensitive enough to reveal, for example, which neighborhoods might be more flood prone than others. The broad overview that this survey affords does not reveal significant differences in the proportion of Americans recently impacted by extreme weather along lines of gender, age, race and ethnicity, educational attainment, or even income.
The survey does, however, reveal that a larger proportion of residents in certain areas of the country report experiencing severe heat, drought, and wildfires. We specifically tested for differences between two overlapping regions of interest and the remainder of the country:
Southwestern states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah.
“Ten Across” states, or those connected by the Interstate-10 corridor: Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, and Texas.
When compared to those living in other parts of the country, a larger proportion of those living in southwestern states and Ten Across states indicated that they had experienced long periods of unusually hot weather, droughts or water shortages, and severe wildfires. However, a smaller proportion of southwestern state residents indicate that they experienced severe storms in 2023 compared to those living outside of the southwest.
Even more Democrats than Republicans report experiencing severe weather events
The survey results also reveal a less dramatic but consistent difference in the weather-related experiences according to political affiliation. A larger proportion of Democrats than Republicans indicate their community was impacted by each of the five weather events included in the survey. Some of these differences are statistically significant, including the 13 percentage-point difference in the proportions indicating that they experienced unusually hot weather, but others are not (the relatively smaller difference in proportions experiencing drought and wildfires), but the pattern is consistent.
On average, Democrats reported experiencing 1.6 of the five events in 2023, compared to an average of 1.1 among Republicans. It may or may not be that generally Democrats tend to live in areas prone to more weather events, but among respondents to this survey it is not obvious that Democrats live in more drought or heat prone areas (see map at the bottom of this page).
Dr. Eric Plutzer, Director of Penn State’s Mood of the Nation Poll, put these findings in context, noting: “This pattern is similar to the consistent finding that Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe that global temperatures have risen over the last century, and suggests that partisanship can lead citizens to characterize their local fires, floods and extreme events as more or less severe.”
Americans’ estimates of impacts of drought and flooding
Support for various public policies depends, in part, on the degree to which the public perceives a problem. The January 2024 Mood of the Nation Poll included two questions related to assessing the public’s perceptions of weather-related problems:
Now, please think about the country as a whole.
Just your best guess, what percent of Americans today would you say live in areas where droughts and water shortages have led governments to restrict water usage?
Just your best guess, what percent of Americans today would you say live in areas where frequent flooding makes it very expensive or impossible to get homeowner’s insurance?
Respondents to the web-based survey answered by adjusting an on-screen slider to a position along a continuum ranging from 0% to 100%.
Overall, respondents gave very similar estimates in response to the two questions:
On average, respondents estimated that 38% of their fellow Americans have endured water restrictions due to drought.
On average, respondents estimated that 37% of their fellow Americans live in areas where frequent flooding makes it very expensive or impossible to get homeowners insurance.
The average estimates did not vary significantly by gender, generation, race and ethnicity, educational attainment, annual family income, or even area of residence according to the two regional definitions used in our analysis (those living in southwestern states versus the rest of the nation, and those living in southern Ten Across states versus the rest of the nation).
There were, however, small but statistically significant differences in the estimates provided by Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats providing higher estimates of the proportion of their fellow Americans who have been subject to droughts as well as higher estimates of the proportion of Americans who have difficulty obtaining insurance due to flooding.
Larger differences in estimates existed between those who had recently experienced either droughts or flooding themselves and those who indicated they had not had those personal experiences; an average estimate of more than 10 percentage points higher in each case.
Further, people who have experienced a higher number of adverse weather events tend to estimate that higher proportions of others are impacted by severe weather. In this survey we asked if respondents had experienced five types of extreme weather.
On average, respondents who experienced three or more different kinds of extreme events estimate that about half of their fellow Americans experienced droughts severe enough to result in water rationing and flooding severe enough to make it difficult to obtain insurance. Those whose communities experienced only one kind of severe event estimated that about one-third of Americans live in areas vulnerable to severe flooding or drought.
However, even those who had not personally experienced any of those extreme weather events estimated that around 30% of their fellow Americans were adversely impacted by drought and flooding. That estimate of 30% is still much higher than the 20% who reported experiencing droughts or severe flooding in their own communities—at least in the past year.
Note: The quotation attributed to Eric Plutzer was corrected on March 27, 2024.
PARTNER FOR THIS SURVEY
The McCourtney Institute for Democracy at Penn State promotes scholarship and practical innovations that defend and advance democracy in the United States and abroad. Through teaching, research and public outreach, the Institute leverages the resources of Penn State and partners around the world to foster a model of deliberation, policymaking and responsiveness that is passionate, informed and civil.
The Institute’s Mood of the Nation poll offers a unique approach to public opinion polling. It allows Americans to speak in their own words through open-ended questions that focus on emotions like anger and hope, as well as commitment to constitutional principles.
For earlier findings from our collaboration with the McCourtney Institute, see our Mood of the Nation landing page.