Poll Watch: Minnesota 2020

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POLL WATCH: MINNESOTA 2018

by CRAIG HELMSTETTER | OCT. 30, 2020 [Updated NOV. 5, 2020]

Minnesota has the nation’s longest track record of voting for the Democratic presidential candidate. But President Trump lost the state by only 1.5 percentage points in 2016, and his campaign is trying hard to flip the state in 2020, making several stops in the weeks leading up to the election.

Minnesota also has a big role to play in the overall control of the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. Having flipped four of the state’s eight congressional seats in 2018—two from R to D and (even more rare) two from D to R—Minnesota has some of the most competitive districts in the nation. Democratic Senator Tina Smith, who was first appointed and then won a special election in 2018, is less than entrenched and facing a serious challenger in Republican Jason Lewis.

2020 is a particularly difficult election to predict, given apparently close races and the wild card of the coronavirus pandemic which, among other things, is directly impacting the way in which people are casting their ballots. What follows is a summary of poll results (where available) and forecasted results as we head toward election day.

President: Donald Trump (R) v. Joe Biden (D)

In 2016 President Donald Trump lost in Minnesota by only 1.5 percentage points, becoming the Republican presidential candidate who has come closest to winning the state since Reagan’s razor-thin loss to Mondale there in 1984.

Throughout President Trump’s term only about 42% of Minnesotans have approved of the President’s job performance, compared with the 55% who disapprove. The President has set his sites on winning Minnesota in 2020, returning to the state several times, including in the final days of the election.

This year’s polls have consistently shown Democratic challenger Joe Biden in the lead—but that lead is narrow, and often within the margin of error. And, even in the latest poll, six percent of likely voters remain undecided. While the polls alone suggest that the race is extremely close, most forecasters (shown below), who generally combine polling with insider knowledge and mathematical modeling, are indicating that Biden is likely to win Minnesota’s 10 electoral college votes.

Despite Biden’s consistent lead, recent polls suggest that the presidential race is very close in Minnesota

On the eve of the election (11/2), leading political forecasters had rated the presidential race in Minnesota as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat

• FiveThirtyEight: Likely Democrat/Biden clearly favored

• Real Clear Politics: Toss up

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democrat

• Politico: Lean Democrat

• CNN/Inside Elections: Lean Democratic

• The Economist: Very Likely Democrat

• NPR: Lean Democrat

Outcome: AP has called the race in Minnesota for Joe Biden. The Minnesota Secretary of State is reporting that former Vice President Joe Biden received 52.4% of the vote, while President Trump received 45.3%, Libertarian Party candidate Jo Jorgensen received 1.1%, and all other candidates (Green Party’s Howie Hawkins, Independent Kanye West, Independent Brock Pierce, Socialism and Liberation’s Gloria La Riva, and Socialist Workers Party’s Alyson Kennedy) each received less than 0.5% of Minnesota’s presidential vote (all 4,110 precincts reporting).

U.S. Senate: Tina Smith (DFL) v. Jason Lewis (R)

Former Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Democrat Tina Smith was appointed to fill this seat when Al Franken resigned in early 2018, and then won in a November special election by a decisive 11 percentage point margin over Republican Karin Housley. This year Smith faces Republican Jason Lewis, a well-known former radio host who represented Minnesota’s 2nd congressional district for one term before losing to Democrat Angie Craig in 2018.

Recent polls show challenger Lewis tied with incumbent Smith in the race for the Senate

On 11/2, the eve of the election, leading political forecasters had rated Minnesota’s race for the U.S. Senate as follows:

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat

• FiveThirtyEight: Likely Democrat

• Real Clear Politics: Toss up

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democrat

• Politico: Likely Democrat

• CNN/Inside Elections: Solid Democratic

• The Economist: Very Likely Democrat

Outcome: AP has called the race for incumbent Democrat Tina Smith. The Minnesota Secretary of State is reporting that Senator Smith received 48.8% of the vote, while Jason Lewis received 43.5%, Legal Marijuana Now party candidate Kevin O’Connor received 5.9%, and Grassroots—Legalize Cannabis party candidate received 1.8% (all 4,110 precincts reporting).

Congressional District 1: Jim Hagedorn (R) v. Dan Feehan (DFL)

This Southern Minnesota district includes regional centers Albert Lea, Austin, Mankato, and Rochester (home of the Mayo Clinic). The seat is currently held by Republican Jim Hagedorn, who flipped the open seat when DFLer Tim Walz left it for his successful 2018 run for governor.

In 2018 Hagedorn won by less than half a percentage point over Iraq war veteran Dan Feehan, who he faces again this year. (Note: See our analysis of recent demographic changes in the district.)

Based on polls, historical voting trends, and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated the race in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district as follows (on the eve of the election, 11/2):

• Cook Political Report: Toss up

• FiveThirtyEight: Lean Republican

• Real Clear Politics: Leans Republican

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democrat (recent change from toss up)

• Politico: Toss up

• CNN/Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic

• The Economist: Uncertain

Outcome: AP has called this race for incumbent Republican Jim Hagedorn. The Minnesota Secretary of State is reporting that Hagedorn received 48.6% of the vote, while DFL challenger Dan Feehan received 45.5% and the Grassroots—Legalize Cannabis candidate, Bill Rood, received 5.8% (all 697 precincts reporting).

Congressional District 2: Angie Craig (DFL) v. Tyler Kistner (R)

This suburban district lies just south of Minneapolis and St. Paul. Eighty-five percent of voters in the second district identify as white, and voters there have the state’s second highest median income ($91,000) and second lowest poverty rate (5%; see our voter profile tools).

In 2018 Angie Craig prevailed over incumbent Jason Lewis by a six percentage point margin, successfully flipping the district from Republican to DFL control. This year Craig faces Republican Tyler Kistner.

Based on polls, historical voting trends, and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated the race in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district as follows (on the eve of the election, 11/2):

• Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic

• FiveThirtyEight: Likely Democratic

• Real Clear Politics: Leans Democrat

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic

• Politico: Lean Democrat

• CNN/Inside Elections: Solid Democratic

• The Economist: Very Likely Democrat

Outcome: AP has called this race for incumbent DFLer Angie Craig. The Minnesota Secretary of State is reporting that Craig received 48.2% of the vote, while Republican challenger Tyler Kistner received 46.0% and the Legal Marijuana Now candidate Adam Weeks, who unexpectedly passed away during the course of the campaign, received 5.8% (with all 289 precincts reporting).

Congressional District 3: Dean Phillips (DFL) v. Kendall Qualls (R)

This district in the western suburbs surrounding Minneapolis is Minnesota’s most affluent. In 2018 then-challenger Dean Phillips prevailed over incumbent Erik Paulsen by a larger-than-expected 11 percentage point margin, successfully flipping the district from Republican to DFL control. This year Phillips faces Republican Kendall Qualls.

Based on polls, historical voting trends, and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated the race in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district as follows (on the eve of the election, 11/2):

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat

• FiveThirtyEight: Solid Democrat

• Real Clear Politics: Safe Democrat

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Safe Democrat

• Politico: Likely Democrat

• CNN/Inside Elections: Solid Democratic

• The Economist: Safe Democrat

Outcome: AP has called this race for incumbent DFLer, Dean Phillips. The Minnesota Secretary of State is reporting that Phillips received 55.6% of the vote, while Kendall Qualls received 44.3% (with all 249 precincts reporting).

Congressional District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) v. Gene Rechtzigel (R)

The 4th congressional district, which includes St. Paul and its eastern suburbs, is among the state’s most diverse; 11% of its potential voters are immigrants and 10% identify as Asian (see our voter profile tools).

Incumbent (*) DFLer Betty McCollum has held this seat since 2001. In 2018 McCollum prevailed by a 36 percentage point margin over then-challenger Republican Greg Ryan. This year she faces Republican Gene Rechtzigel.

Based on polls, historical voting trends, and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated the race in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district as follows (on the eve of the election, 11/2):

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat

• FiveThirtyEight: Solid Democrat

• Real Clear Politics: Safe Democrat

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Safe Democrat

• Politico: Solid Democrat

• CNN/Inside Elections: Solid Democratic

• The Economist: Safe Democrat 

Outcome: AP has called this race for incumbent DFLer, Betty McCollum. The Minnesota Secretary of State is reporting that McCollum received 63.2% of the vote, while Gene Rechtzigel received 29.0% (with all 225 precincts reporting).

Congressional District 5: Ilhan Omar (DFL) v. Lacy Johnson (R)

Minnesota’s 5th congressional district, which includes Minneapolis and its western suburbs, is the state’s most diverse, leading the state in percent of potential voters who identify as Black (14%) and Latino (6%). It also the state’s youngest, poorest district, and is tied for most educated with 47% of potential voters holding at least a Bachelors degree (see our voter profile tools).

In 2018 Ilhan Omar won the election for this seat, which was left open by Keith Ellison, who successfully ran for Minnesota Attorney General. Omar prevailed by a 56 percentage point margin over then-challenger Jennifer Zielinski, to become the first refugee, first Somali-American, and, along with Rashida Tlaib from Michigan's 13th District, first Muslim woman elected to Congress. This year she is facing Republican Lacy Johnson.

Based on polls, historical voting trends, and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated the race in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district as follows (on the eve of the election, 11/2):

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat

• FiveThirtyEight: Solid Democrat

• Real Clear Politics: Safe Democrat

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Safe Democrat

• Politico: Solid Democrat

• CNN/Inside Elections: Solid Democratic

• The Economist: Safe Democrat 

Outcome: AP has called this race for incumbent DFLer, Ilhan Omar. The Minnesota Secretary of State is reporting that Omar received 64.3% of the vote, while Republican Lacy Johnson received 25.8%, and Legal Marijuana Now party candidate Michael Moore received 9.5% (with all 238 precincts reporting).

Congressional District 6: Tom Emmer (R) v. Tawnja Zahradka (DFL)

Central Minnesota’s 6th congressional district, which include Twin Cities’ western and northern exurbs and St. Cloud, has a voting-age population that is 91% white and a relatively high proportion are middle-aged (35% age 45-64; see our voter profile tools).

Incumbent (*) Republican Tom Emmer was first elected to represent the district in 2014. He was re-elected in 2016 by a margin of 31 percentage points, which was even greater than President Trump’s 26 point margin in the district. In 2018 Emmer prevailed over DFLer Ian Todd by 22 percentage points. This year Emmer faces Democrat Tawnja Zahradka.

Based on polls, historical voting trends, and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated the race in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district as follows (on the eve of the election, 11/2):

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican

• FiveThirtyEight: Solid Republican

• Real Clear Politics: Safe Republican

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

• Politico: Solid Republican

• CNN/Inside Elections: Solid Republican

• The Economist: Safe Republican

Outcome: AP has called this race for incumbent Republican Tom Emmer. The Minnesota Secretary of State is reporting that Emmer received 65.7% of the vote, while Tawnja Zahradka received 34.1% (with all 281 precincts reporting).

Congressional District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL) v. Michelle Fischbach (R)

Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District, which includes much of the rural western third of the state, has a voting-age population that is largely white (91%) and tied for the state’s oldest (27% age 65 or older; see our voter profile tools).

Incumbent (*) DFLer Collin Peterson has held this seat, since 1991. In 2016 Peterson defeated Republican Air Force Veteran Dave Hughes by five percentage points, even though President Trump won 31 percent of the district’s vote, the nation’s biggest Congressional-Presidential vote split. In 2018 Peterson held on to the district by four percentage points.

This year Peterson is facing a formidable challenger in Republican Michelle Fischbach, who served in the Minnesota Senate from 1997 to 2018 ending her stay there as Senate President before briefly serving as Lieutenant Governor under Democratic Governor Mark Dayton. (Note: See our analysis of recent demographic changes in the district.)

Based on polls, historical voting trends, and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated the race in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district as follows (on the eve of the election, 11/2):

• Cook Political Report: Toss up

• FiveThirtyEight: Likely Republican

• Real Clear Politics: Toss up

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican (recent change from toss up)

• Politico: Toss up

• CNN/Inside Elections: Toss up

• The Economist: Likely Republican

Outcome: AP has called this race for Republican challenger Michelle Fischbach. The Minnesota Secretary of State is reporting that Fischbach received 53.4% of the vote, while incumbent DFLer Collin Peterson received 39.8%, Legal Marijuana Now candidate Slater Johnson received 4.9%, and Grassroots—Legalize Cannabis candidate Rae Hart Anderson received 1.8% (all 1,329 precincts reporting).

Congressional District 8: Pete Stauber (R) v. Quinn Nystrom

Minnesota’s “Iron Range” district extends well beyond northeastern mining towns to include Duluth and south to the northern Twin Cities exurbs. The district’s voting age population is Minnesota’s oldest, with 27% over age 64, and least racially diverse with 93% identifying as White (see our voter profile tools).

In 2018 Republican Pete Stauber successfully flipped this long-time DFL stronghold in 6 percentage point victory over Joe Radinovich. This year Stauber faces Democrat Quinn Nystrom.

Based on polls, historical voting trends, and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated the race in Minnesota’s 1st congressional district as follows (on the eve of the election, 11/2):

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican

• FiveThirtyEight: Solid Republican

• Real Clear Politics: Likely Republican

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

• Politico: Likely Republican

• CNN/Inside Elections: Solid Republican

• The Economist: Likely Republican

Outcome: AP has called this race for incumbent Republican Pete Stauber. The Minnesota Secretary of State is reporting that Stauber received 56.9% of the vote, while DFLer Quinn Nystrom received 37.5%, and Grassroots—Legalize Cannabis candidate Judith Schwartzbacker received 5.6% (all 802 precincts reporting).