Politics

Poll Watch: Minnesota 2022

 

by APM RESEARCH LAB STAFF | Last updated Nov. 9, 2022

In partnership with Minnesota Public Radio News, the APM Research Lab is tracking poll results for key races in Minnesota leading up to the election on November 8. This mid-term election includes races for statewide offices of Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State and State Auditor, as well as the U.S. Representatives, State Senators and Representatives and judicial seats. Adding to the interest of this year’s election is that it will be the first under newly drawn voting districts arising from the 2020 Census.

What follows is a summary of poll results and forecasted election outcomes (when available) as well as candidate lists and officially-reported fundraising summaries as we head toward election day. Click here for context related to Minnesota’s House and Senate elections.

EARLY VOTING UPDATE: The Minnesota Sectary of State’s Office is reporting that as of Nov. 8th (3:00 p.m. Central Time), 773,255 voters have requested mail-in or absentee ballots, and that 657,575 have been returned and accepted. As a proportion of the state’s 3,562,055 registered voters, 22% have requested mail-in or absentee ballots, including the 18.5% who have already voted.

As a proportion of votes cast in Minnesota for top-of-ticket races for Governor and President:

  • In 2022: 26% of the 2.5 million votes cast were absentee or mail ballots (vote tally as of Nov. 9 at 10:15 a.m. Central Time, subject to update).

  • In 2020: 58% of the 3.3 million votes cast were absentee or mail ballots.

  • In 2018: 25% of the 2.6 million votes cast were absentee or mail ballots.

Minnesotans’ ratings of President Biden’s job performance

While President Biden is not on the ballot in 2022, ratings of the president’s policies cast a long shadow over the state’s elections. If Minnesotans generally approve of the president’s job performance, that may indicate a favorable climate for the state’s Democrats. If Minnesotans generally disapprove, that may indicate a favorable climate for the state’s Republicans.

Latest findings: The most recent poll, conducted on behalf of MinnPost Oct. 10-14, found that 54% of Minnesota voters disapprove of President Biden’s overall job performance, including 46% who disapprove strongly. Forty-six percent approve, including the 18% who strongly approve. The survey was done by Embold Research, the nonpartisan arm of B- rated pollster Change Research.

Previously, the Sept. MPR News|Star Tribune|KARE11 Minnesota Poll (conducted by Mason Dixon Polling and Strategy, a pollster with an A- rating according to fivethirtyeight) shows a statistically similar proportion of Minnesota’s likely voters approve and disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance as president (46% and 49%, respectively, within the survey’s 3.5 percentage point margin of error).

An earlier September poll by KSTP found a wider spread with 41% approving and 52% disapproving.

Minnesota Governor

Race outcome: Incumbent DFL Governor Tim Walz was reelected with 52.3% of the vote compared to 44.6% who voted for Republican Scott Jensen.

Background: Democrat Tim Walz was elected to his first term in 2018 by an 11 point margin over Republican Jeff Johnson. This time around Walz and running mate Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan faced Republican nominee Scott Jensen. Jensen is a family physician who served one term in the Minnesota Senate representing the Chaska, Minn., area. He came to prominence criticizing the state and federal response to COVID-19. Jensen is joined by running mate, and former Minnesota Viking, Matt Birk.
Both Walz and Jensen easily won their respective party primaries on August 9, as did Steve Patterson for the Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis party and, by a much narrower margin, James McCaskel for the Legal Marijuana Now party.

See MPR’s voter guide: Where candidates for Minnesota governor stand on a variety of issues.

The latest polls: The late October a KSPT poll of likely voters found Walz ahead by eight percentage points. SurveyUSA, a pollster rated “A” by fivethirtyeight, conducted the poll, which had a credibility rating (similar to traditional margin of error) of +/-3.9 percentage points. Only two percent indicated they would be voting for a third party candidate, and four percent remained undecided.

Previously, MinnPost’s Oct. 10-14 poll had Walz leading Jensen by five percentage points. The poll, conducted by Embold Research, the nonpartisan arm of B- rated pollster Change Research, has a modeled margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.

Prior to that, KSTP’s early Oct. poll had Walz leading by 10 percentage points. In the Sept. MPR News|Star Tribune|KARE11 Minnesota Poll (conducted by Mason Dixon Polling and Strategy, a pollster with an A- rating according to fivethirtyeight) Walz had a seven percentage point lead over Jensen among likely voters.

Note: We generally do not include polls released by campaigns or related interest groups in our round-up.

Election forecasts: As of 10/31, leading election forecasters have rated Minnesota’s race for Governor as follows:


The full list of candidates, as reported by Minnesota’s Secretary of State, and the contributions to their campaigns, as reported by Minnesota’s Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board:

Attorney General

Race outcome: As of Nov. 9, 10:30 a.m. Central Time, incumbent DFLer Keith Ellison is ahead in the vote count, with 50.4% of votes cast for Ellison compared to 49.5% for Republican challenger Jim Schultz.

Background: First-term incumbent Democrat Keith Ellison was looking to hold onto this seat, which he won by 4 points in a contest against Republican Doug Wardlow in 2018. This time around the candidate officially endorsed by the Republican party was lawyer Jim Schultz, who also prevailed over Wardlow in the August 9 primary.

See MPR’s voter guide: Minnesota Attorney General candidates' stances on a variety of issues.

The polls: In KSTP’s late October poll, Schultz led Ellison by seven percentage points. SurveyUSA, rated “A” by fivethirtyeight, conducted the poll, which had a credibility rating (similar to traditional margin of error) of +/-3.9 percentage points. Nine percent remained undecided.

Previously, MinnPost’s Oct. 10-14 poll had the race tied, with each candidate supported by 47 percent of likely voters. KSTP’s early October poll, conducted by A-rated pollster Survey USA, also found the race to be statistically tied, as did the mid-September MPR News | Star Tribune | KARE11 Minnesota Poll.

 
 


The full list of candidates, as reported by Minnesota’s Secretary of State, and the contributions to their campaigns, as reported by Minnesota’s Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board:

Secretary of State

Race result: Incumbent DFLer Steve Simon prevailed, receiving 54.5% of the vote compared with 454.% for Republican challenger Kim Crockett.

Background: Incumbent DFLer Steve Simon was first elected as Minnesota’s Secretary of State in 2014. This year his main challenge is coming from Republican Kim Crockett, a lawyer and political activist. While there is no meaningful evidence of voter fraud in Minnesota, Republicans are accusing Simon—like many elections officials throughout the country—of overseeing a flawed election in 2020. As of May, however, Simon has raised far more campaign contributions than any other candidate for the office.

As expected, both Simon and Crockett easily won their respective primary races on August 9.

See MPR’s voter guide: Minnesota secretary of state candidates’ stances on elections.

The polls: In KSTP’s late October poll, Simon led Crockett by six percentage points. However, the survey’s credibility rating (similar to traditional margin of error) is +/-3.9 percentage points and 12% of likely voters remained undecided. SurveyUSA, rated “A” by fivethirtyeight, conducted the poll.

Previously, Minnpost’s Oct. 10-14 poll had Simon leading Crockett by seven percentage points. The poll, conducted by Embold Research (the nonpartisan arm of B- rated pollster Change Research), has a modeled margin of error of 2.6 percentage points and also found that ten percent of likely voters are undecided.

Prior to that, KSTP’s early October poll found that the race was statistically tied. In the mid-September MPR News | Star Tribune | KARE11 Minnesota Poll, incumbent DFLer Steve Simon led the race by a margin of eight percentage points, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided.

 
 

The full list of candidates, as reported by Minnesota’s Secretary of State, and the contributions to their campaigns, as reported by Minnesota’s Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board:

State Auditor

Race result: As of Nov. 9, 10:30 a.m. Central Time, incumbent DFLer Julie Blaha is ahead in the vote count, with 47.4% of votes cast for Blaha compared to 47.1% for Republican challenger Ryan Wilson. Legal Marijuana Now candidate received 3.6% of the vote and Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis candidate received 1.8%.

Background: Incumbent DFLer Julie Blaha is in her first term as State Auditor after winning the seat by a six percentage point margin in 2018. This year her main challenge is coming from Republican Ryan Wilson, a lawyer and former CEO of a medical device company. Unlike other statewide candidates in Minnesota this year, the Republican challenger has so far out-raised the DFL incumbent.

See MPR’s voter guide for the candidates’ stances on key issues.

The polls: In KSTP’s late October poll, Wilson leads Blaha by five percentage points. That lead, however, is narrowly within the survey’s credibility rating (similar to traditional margin of error) of +/-3.9 percentage points. Additionally, 14% of likely voters remain undecided. SurveyUSA, rated “A” by fivethirtyeight, conducted the poll.

Minnpost’s Oct. 10-14 poll has the race tied, with each candidate supported by 40 percent of likely voters. The poll, conducted by Embold Research (the nonpartisan arm of B- rated pollster Change Research), has a modeled margin of error of 2.6 percentage points and also found that three percent of voters favor Legal Marijuana Now candidate Tim Davis, another three percent favor Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis candidate Will Finn, and 12 percent of likely voters are undecided.

Prior to that, KSTP’s early October poll and their early September poll also found that the race for the State Auditor’s office was statistically tied.

 
 

The full list of candidates, as reported by Minnesota’s Secretary of State, and the contributions to their campaigns, as reported by Minnesota’s Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board:

Congressional District 1

Race outcome: Republican Brad Finstad prevailed, receiving 53.8% of the vote, compared with 42.3% for DFL challenger Jeff Ettinger.

Background: This Southern Minnesota district includes regional centers Albert Lea, Mankato, Rochester (home of the Mayo Clinic), and Worthington. The seat is currently open. It was held by Republican Jim Hagedorn who had flipped the previously open seat when DFLer Tim Walz left it for his successful 2018 run for governor. Hagedorn won narrow victories over DFLer Dan Feehan in both 2018 and 2020, but Feehan is not running this year.

Hagedorn passed away from cancer in February, leaving the seat vacant until it was filled in a special election on August 9, the same date as the state’s primary—including the primary vote for candidates in this district. The August 9 special election filled the seat according to the currently existing boundaries for Minnesota’s 1st congressional district, whereas the November election will conform to the state’s newly-adopted boundaries (shown here).

A May 2022 special election primary forwarded former Hormel Foods executive Jeff Ettinger as the DFL candidate, and former state senator Brad Finstad as the Republican candidate. On August 9 Finstad won the special election to serve out the remaining term with 51% of the vote over Ettinger’s 47%. In the simultaneously-held primary, Finstad won decisively over Munson, and Ettinger won in the DFL race; setting up a quick re-match in November.

In the the only poll since the special election, conducted in late October by A-rated pollster SurveyUSA on behalf of KSTP, Finstad led Ettinger by a 9 percentage point margin. Six percent of likely voters in the district favored Richard Reisdorf, the Legal Marijuana Now candidate, and 10% remained undecided according to the poll, which had a credibility interval of 4.8 percentage points.

 
 

Election forecasts: As of 10/31 leading election forecasters have rated Minn. CD1 as follows:

Congressional District 2

Race outcome: Incumbent DFLer Angie Craig was reelected, receiving 50.9% of the vote compared to the 45.7% received by Republican challenger Tyler Kistner.

Background: This district stretches south from just outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul down to Northfield, including all of Dakota, Le Suer, and Scott counties and parts of Rice and Washington.

CD2 is Minnesota’s most contested district. DFLer Angie Craig has held the seat for two terms, after successfully challenging then-incumbent Republican Jason Lewis in 2018 and holding on with a narrow victory over Tyler Kistner in 2020. Craig faces Kistner again this year, and has considerably out-fundraised his campaign through the first half of 2022.

See MPR’s Voter Guide for 2nd District candidates' stances on guns, abortion and more.

The Polls: The only public, nonpartisan poll in the district, conducted by A-rated pollster Survey USA on behalf of KSTP News, showed Craig and Kistner statistically tied in the race.

 
 


Election forecasts: As of 10/31 leading election forecasters have rated Minn. CD2 as follows:

Congressional District 3

Race outcome: Incumbent DFLer Dean Phillips was reelected with 59.6% of the vote, compared with the 40.4% of the vote going to Republican challenger Tom Weiler.

Background: DFLer Dean Phillips has held this seat—which includes many of Minneapolis’s northern, western and southern suburbs—since flipping it from Republican Erik Paulsen in 2018. Phillips again won by an 11 point margin in 2020, and now faces Republican Tom Weiler—whom he had considerably out fundraised through the first half of 2022.

See MPR’s Voter Guide for 3rd District candidates' stances on abortion, crime and more.

Election forecasts: As of 10/31 leading election forecasters have rated Minn. CD3 as follows:

Congressional District 4

Race result: Incumbent DFLer Betty McCollum was reelected, receiving 67.6% of the district’s vote, compared to 32.3% voting for Republican challenger May Lor Xiong.

Background: The 4th congressional district, which includes St. Paul and its suburbs to the north and east, has been held by incumbent DFLer Betty McCollum since 2001. She was challenged by progressive DFLer Amane Badhasso in the August primary, but McCollum won by a wide margin.

May Lor Xiong is the endorsed Republican candidate and prevailed over Jerry Silver and Gene Rechtzigel in the August 9 primary.

See MPR’s voter guide for the 4th District candidates' stances on education, immigration and more.

Election forecasts: As of 10/31 leading election forecasters have rated Minn. CD4 as follows:

Congressional District 5

Race result: DFL incumbent Ilhan Omar was reelected with 74.3% of the vote. Challenger Cicely Davis received 24.5% of votes cast in the district.

Background: Minnesota’s 5th congressional district, which includes Minneapolis and its immediate western suburbs, has been held by DFLer Ilhan Omar since 2018 when she became the first refugee, first Somali-American and, along with Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, first Muslim woman elected to Congress.

Cicely Davis is the endorsed Republican candidate, but Omar faced down a somewhat more challenging threat from former Minneapolis council member Don Samuels by winning the August 9 primary by only a 2 percentage point margin.

See MPR’s voter guide for 5th District candidates' stances on police reform, health care and more.

Election forecasts: As of 10/31 leading election forecasters have rated Minn. CD5 as follows:

Congressional District 6

Race result: Republican incumbent Tom Emmer was reelected, receiving 62.0% of the vote, compared with 37.8% voting for DFL challenger Jeanne Hendricks.

Background: Central Minnesota’s 6th congressional district—which include Twin Cities’ western and northern exurbs and St. Cloud—has been held by Republican Tom Emmer since 2015. Throughout the first half of 2022, Emmer has far out fundraised his DFL challenger, Jeanne Hendricks.

See MPR’s voter guide for the 6th District candidates' stances on guns, abortion and more.

Election forecasts: As of 10/31 leading election forecasters have rated Minn. CD6 as follows:

Congressional District 7

Race result: Incumbent Republican Michelle Fischback was reelected, receiving 67.0% of the votes compared with the 27.6% of votes cast for DFL challenger Jill Abahsian.

Background: Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District, which includes much of the rural western third of the state, was flipped from long-time DFL Congressman Colin Peterson by Republican Michelle Fischbach in 2020. Even before Fishbach won the seat, the district leaned rightward, voting for President Trump by a wide margin in 2016.

Jill Abahsain is the endorsed DFL candidate in the 7th district, and on August 9 she won the district’s DFL primary over Alycia Gruenhagen. Travis “Bull” Johnson is also seeking the seat.

See MPR’s voter guide for the 7th District candidates' stances on abortion, education and more.

Election forecasts: As of 10/31 leading election forecasters have rated Minn. CD7 as follows:

Congressional District 8

Race result: Incumbent Republican Pete Stauber was reelected, receiving 57.2% of the vote compared with the 42.7% received by DFL challenger Jen Schultz.

Background: Minnesota’s “Iron Range” district extends well beyond northeastern mining towns to include Duluth to the east and the northern Twin Cities exurbs to the south. In 2018 Republican Pete Stauber successfully flipped this long-time DFL stronghold in a six percentage point open-seat victory over DFLer Joe Radinovich.

Now the district is seen as a lock for Republicans, although DFL-endorsed candidate Jen Schultz would like to see a different outcome.

See MPR’s voter guide for the 8th District candidates' stances on iron mining, guns and more.

Election forecasts: As of 10/31 leading election forecasters have rated Minn. CD8 as follows:

The full list of candidates, as reported by Minnesota’s Secretary of State, and the contributions to their campaigns, as reported by the Federal Election Commission:

Thoughts? Questions?

We want to hear from you! Leave us a message below.