COVID goes to college, driving students away
Photo by Nathan Dumlao on Unsplash
COVID goes to college, driving students away
Fall enrollment numbers reveal a dramatic decline in first-time undergrads
by ALYSON CLARY | Oct. 30, 2020
New data shows that many would-be college students are choosing not to enroll in undergraduate institutions during the coronavirus pandemic. In total, first-time beginning student enrollment this fall dropped by 16.1% from the previous year—and this subset of enrollment losses has driven an overall decline in undergraduate enrollment on the national level.
As we enter November and the fall semester is sufficiently under way, a disconcerting picture of undergraduate enrollment in the shadow of COVID is starting to come into focus. The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is tracking higher education enrollment across the country. Its second report on fall enrollment, released in mid-October and with just over half of all colleges and universities reporting, reveals undergraduate enrollment is down 4.0 percent overall compared to last year (calculated only from institutions with data in both years). While this decline is shared across every demographic category, it is particularly sharp among some groups:
(See the graph at the end of the article for a fuller picture of undergraduate enrollment by demographic characteristics.)
One of the most striking patterns to emerge in the data is the precipitous drop in enrollment for first-time beginning students across all education sectors excepting the for-profit sector. At public four-year institutions, for example, enrollment of these students fell 13.7% compared to the previous year. Private non-profit institutions saw a decline of 11.8% enrollment of traditional first years, and community colleges saw the most severe drop of 22.7%.
Among all these declines in college enrollment, one sector that saw enrollment numbers increase was for-profit, 4-year institutions. These schools saw a 3.0% increase in overall student enrollment, including a 3.7% total increase among first-time students. Nonetheless, when we look specifically at the most traditional age group of first-time attendees, those age 18 to 20, there is a decline of 3.2%. (By comparison, first-time students from that demographic enrolled at for-profit institutions in 2019 at a 5.7% increase from the prior year.)
The decline in first-time student enrollment is not wholly unexpected. Back in May, Inside Higher Ed noted a rising interest among college-bound students in deferring admission and taking a gap year as it became clear that the disruption of the pandemic would extend into the fall and beyond. Some students may have opted to delay their college enrollment, but many others and their families experienced sudden financial precarity that likely put college plans in jeopardy. Even if expected, the large declines in first-time beginning student enrollment numbers this fall suggest troubling economic implications for this generation that is transitioning into adulthood in the time of COVID.
In July, the Pew Research Center reported that, as from February to June of this year, 10.3 million young people (or 28%) between the ages of 16 and 24 were “disconnected,” both unemployed and unenrolled in school. This is the highest disconnection rate for June since 1989—and notably comes only two years after the lowest disconnection rate in 30 years. Measure of America notes that, “one fundamental indicator of societal progress and well-being is how young people are faring in their transition to adulthood,” and a connection to economic and educational institutions positively aids in that transition.
While some young people will enroll in college once a vaccine is developed and in-person classes can safely resume, not all will, especially if they are experiencing financial constraint. Even if students begin college after delaying for a year, prior research indicates that, “students who delay enrollment are 64% less likely than their ‘on-time’ peers to complete a bachelor’s degree and 18 percent less likely to complete any college credential.” This has serious consequences for lifetime earning potential. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, those with a high school diploma earn on average 40% less than their peers with a bachelor’s degree. Moreover, those with less education are more likely to be unemployed or to drop out of the labor force altogether.
The long-term societal effects of this fall’s depressed undergraduate enrollment numbers, especially those among first-time students, are unclear. We need more data, which will continue to roll in over the course of this fall and into next year. It remains to be seen: 1) the precise extent to which BIPOC and lower-income students are disproportionately represented among the decline in first-time beginning students; and, 2) how declining enrollment and other financial constraints will alter higher education on the institutional level. Nonetheless, it is safe to say that the coronavirus pandemic will profoundly shape this generation, including their experience—or lack thereof—with higher education and all of the opportunities it can promise.
-Alyson