A changing mix of voters could decide three Midwestern battlegrounds
Omaha, situated in the heart of Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, could play a pivotal role in deciding both the Presidency and the make-up of the U.S. House.
Photo: Jesse Duering on Unsplash
A changing mix of voters could decide three Midwestern battlegrounds
by ANDI EGBERT | Oct. 28, 2020
A subtle shift in the composition of eligible voters could prove pivotal in three Midwestern congressional races being closely watched: Minnesota’s 1st and 7th districts and Nebraska’s 2nd. All three are considered toss-ups by five or more leading political forecasters [1], and all three have experienced a changing electorate since the 2018 midterms—in ways that mostly favor Democrats.
I examined congressional districts generally regarded as battleground races in 2020, to see how the composition of the voter pool within them has shifted in the past two years (for which we have data). After all, those polygons on the map don’t actually cast votes; only the people who live there do. And those voters are in a constant state of dynamism, due to in- and out-migration, teens aging into voter-eligibility, deaths of prior voters, and newly naturalized citizens now able to mark a ballot. Here’s what I learned about how voters in these three battleground districts have changed recently.
MINNESOTA’S 7TH DISTRICT
What’s the district like?
Running nearly the entire length of Minnesota’s western border, the 7th district hangs like a wide necktie on the state. Along the way, it covers lots of agricultural land (you can thank this district for sugar beets) and also scoops up the college-rich city of Moorhead and regional centers Fergus Falls and Alexandria, in Minnesota’s recreational lake country.
What’s changed in the voter pool in two years’ time:
An estimated 6,000 net new eligible voters reside in the 7th district, but they are not descendants of the Norwegian, Swedish, Irish and German stock the state has long been known for, as the number of non-Hispanic White eligible voters appears to be unchanged or possibly slightly smaller. Meanwhile, voters of color have swelled, in the range of 5,000 to 10,000 compared to two years earlier, including about 3,500 additional Latino voters. About 6,000 additional voters in the district hold bachelor’s or higher degrees as well, compared to two years ago.
BOTTOM LINE: These new marginal shifts should generally help Democrats—in both the House race and the Presidential share—despite the district’s otherwise crimson characteristics.
Who’s running?
Fifteen-term incumbent Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson has been serving Minnesota’s 7th congressional district since 1991. Even as the district has become redder (based on other races), Peterson’s decades of constituent relationships and status as powerful chair of the House Agriculture Committee have been a bulwark for him. He held onto his seat over challenger Dave Hughes by about 4 and 5 points in 2018 and 2016, respectively. Peterson is a unicorn: He held on to his largely rural district despite the fact that his constituents also favored Trump by a 31-point margin over Clinton in 2016, the largest such gap in the nation. Peterson and Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey were the only two Democrats to vote against both articles of impeachment against President Trump in December 2019.
This cycle, Republicans are testing Peterson’s support with challenger Michelle Fischbach, an attorney who served as Minnesota’s former Lieutenant Governor in 2018 through 2019. She ascended to that post in the curious case when then-Governor Mark Dayton, a Democrat, appointed his second-in-command, Tina Smith, to fill U.S. Senator Al Franken’s seat following his January 2018 resignation from Congress.
The move elevated Fischbach from her role as a president of the Minnesota Senate and gave her a statewide platform that helped with name recognition. Fischbach had served in the Minnesota state legislature since 1996, representing an area in the middle of the state near the mid-sized city of St. Cloud. In 2018, Fischbach also joined former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty’s ticket as his running mate in his failed bid to win the Republican primary and seek a 3rd gubernatorial term, after an eight-year hiatus. Learn more about the race from MPR News.
NEBRASKA’S 2ND DISTRICT
What’s the district like?
“Omaha, somewhere in middle America,” sang the Counting Crows on their hit 1993 album. Everyone with a political bone in their body is going to know where Omaha is after the 2020 election night, given its outsized importance this election cycle. Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district comprises college-rich Omaha and its western suburbs, and the Biden-Harris ticket is hoping it could add a crucial electoral vote to its tally. (Nebraska distributes its electoral votes for president based on outcomes by congressional districts: the statewide winner claims two electoral votes and the winner in each district claims one.) Said one senior Biden advisor in a Politico article, “My gut says the true path of least resistance [to winning] is Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, NE-2.” The Trump campaign is equally keen on denying them that one vote.
Unlike Nebraska’s 1st and 3rd districts, which are solidly Republican, the 2nd district sent Republican incumbent Don Bacon back to Congress in 2018 with only a 2 percentage point margin over Kara Eastman (D). President Trump’s 2016 margin was also 2 points, meaning even small shifts in the electorate could alter outcomes this time around.
What’s changed in the voter pool in two years’ time:
Nebraska’s second district has seen sizable growth in its eligible voter pool, to the tune of adding roughly 10,000-20,000 (net) new eligible voters over the last two years. This alone adds a degree of uncertainty compared to earlier patterns of voting. Approximately 4 in 10 of these new voters are White (non-Hispanic), while 6 in 10 are voters of color, especially Asians. Furthermore, roughly 15,000 net new voters in the district hold at least a four-year college degree compared to two years ago. Curiously, the district has seen the largest increases in its voters at the opposite age ends of the age distribution—below age 30 and above age 65.
BOTTOM LINE: Mixed picture. Growth in both White and non-White populations could benefit both parties. The rising educational attainment of the district favors Democrats as does the small surge in young adult voters. However, the growth in voters 65 and older—the most reliable voting block to follow through on filling out their ballots—has historically been on friendlier terms with Republicans. But recent polling suggests that Biden may have an edge with seniors this year, despite Trump winning this group by 8 points in 2016, according to NBC exit polls. Politico writes that Biden is polling 6-7 points ahead of Trump in the district, which also went for Obama in his first but not second term.
Who’s running?
In the congressional race, Democratic challenger Kara Eastman is in a spirited rematch against Republican incumbent Don Bacon. Eastman is a social worker and nonprofit leader, while Bacon retired from the Air Force as a Brigadier General. Bacon has served two terms in Congress. Both the Trump and Biden campaigns have been focusing attention and resources on the 2nd district as well, hoping to snag its sole electoral vote. Learn more about the race from NET, Nebraska’s public radio station.
MINNESOTA’S 1ST DISTRICT
What’s the district like?
Minnesota’s 1st district runs the length of the bottom of the state, smooth on the Iowa-facing underside but more like a submarine on the top. But this voting vessel is still at depths just below the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro, so it includes many rural or small towns that are more conservative. Notable exceptions include the cities of Mankato (also home to four colleges with numerous young adult voters) and Rochester, location of the world-renowned Mayo Clinic and a burgeoning population center that is highly educated and increasingly racially diverse.
What’s changed in the voter pool in two years’ time:
The overall size of the electorate is mostly unchanged in Minnesota’s 1st, but its composition is churning slowly. About 2,000 additional Asian voters live in the district compared to two years prior. White (non-Hispanic) voters, while still representing 9 in 10 residents who may cast a ballot, have actually declined in number. Considering the margins of error, there are somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 fewer White voters in the district than two years ago, while every lost White voter has been replaced by a voter of color. The district is also home to more college diplomas than in 2017, with a growing share of potential voters (29%) now possessing a bachelor’s or advanced degree.
BOTTOM LINE: These shifts should benefit the Democrats more than Republicans in the House and presidential race, although the district is hard to pigeonhole. Of note: MN-01 was one of only 21 districts in the country that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 (+15 points), four years after voting for Barack Obama in 2012. Similarly, it sent Democrat Tim Walz (now Minnesota’s Governor) to Congress in 2016, but advanced Republican Jim Hagedorn in the following contest.
Who’s running?
One-term incumbent Jim Hagedorn (R) is in a pitched battle against Dan Feehan (D) in Minnesota’s 1st district, a rematch from 2018. That midterm showdown proved to be one of the tightest races of any congressional district in the country, with Hagedorn eking out a victory by 0.4 percentage points. Feehan is an army combat veteran and a teacher. Hagedorn is the son of farmers whose father Tom also served four terms in Congress and previously, the Minnesota statehouse. Learn more about the race from MPR News.
-Andi (On Twitter: @dataANDInfo)
[1] See Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Politico, CNN and The Economist. All of these forecasters have rated these three seats as “Toss-ups” in October 2020, with the exception of FiveThirtyEight and The Economist assessing both MN-01 and MN-07 as “Lean Republican” or “Very Likely Republican,” respectively.
MORE VOTER INSIGHTS AT APM RESEARCH LAB
To learn more about these districts or eligible voters in any congressional district or state, see our 2020 Voter Profile Tools.
Check out this blog to explore the power and origins of the immigrant vote in your state.
Explore what reputable pollsters say about key races in Minnesota at our Poll Watch MN 2020 page.
To learn more about outcomes in 2018 and 2016 elections, see our Representing US: 2018 Midterms summary.
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