Our summer of grief: COVID deaths, once slowing in pace, now rebounding for all race groups
Illustration by United Nations via Unsplash.
COVID deaths, once slowing in pace, now rebounding for all race groups
by ANDI EGBERT | AUG. 11, 2020
As we approach fall in the U.S., the daylight is shortening, but the loss of life from COVID-19 is lengthening—and no racial group has been spared from this terrible trend.
This is what I found examining the data we’ve been compiling throughout the spring and summer as part of our Color of Coronavirus project. Our primary presentation of the data is cumulative, to show the sum impact of the virus on the U.S., and especially its disproportionately high toll on Black, Indigenous and other populations of color. With the exception of Asian Americans, all other populations of color have experienced a cumulative, age-adjusted death rate of roughly triple or more that of White Americans. Asian Americans have a mortality rate 1.4 times that of Whites.
As the weeks have gone by, we have also built a racially descriptive database of these lives lost, which allows for analysis over time. Our latest update, featuring data released by states through Aug. 4, shows the summer of 2020 has been marked by a troubling “U” shape in reported deaths across all race groups—with the sharpest rise most recently in deaths among Latinos.
The latest two-week period (July 22-Aug. 4) saw the highest number of COVID-19 deaths reported among Latino Americans at any point in the summer, and a 157% increase over the prior two-week span. However, some of the large spike in the latest period is due to Texas improving its data reporting and transparency. All told, roughly half of the change in Latino deaths recorded from July 22-Aug. 4 were due to our death tally for Texas alone (2,651 new), some of which may have occurred earlier in the summer. (Fewer than two-thirds of Texas’ total deaths had known race or ethnicity on July 21, but the reporting change resulted in more than 99 percentage of deaths now accounted for.) Still, even if we were to set all of Texas’ losses aside, deaths among Latinos have risen roughly back to the volume we saw in the two weeks following Memorial Day (May 25), completing the “U” shape.
Deaths among Black Americans have also surged in the latest two-week period, to just under 2,800 lives lost, following three periods hovering at only about 60 percent of that amount. This is deeply discouraging, as it means that the knowledge that Black Americans have the highest mortality rate of all racial groups—which we and many other groups have been reporting since April—has not resulted in effective interventions to shield Black Americans from ratcheting losses. The latest two-week count of deaths reflects a 70% increase over the prior period. (Even setting aside Black deaths reported in Texas in the latest period, new deaths topped 2,300 in our latest update.)
White Americans’ mortality trend echoes that of Blacks and Latinos, in that the fewest losses over any two weeks of the summer occurred June 24-July 6, inclusive of the 4th of July holiday. However, Independence Day related exposures may have contributed to the doubling of deaths observed three and four weeks later (in the latest period), given that deaths are a lagging indicator. The latest two-week count of deaths reflects a 60% increase over the prior period. (Even setting aside White deaths reported in Texas in the latest period, new deaths among White Americans approached 5,800 in our latest update.)
The summer pattern for Asian deaths was perhaps the most encouraging of any group—descending like a staircase over eight weeks—but deaths among Asians also swelled as July turned to August. The latest two-week count of deaths reflects a 64% increase over the prior period. (Even setting aside Asian deaths reported in Texas in the latest period, new deaths among Asian Americans tallied 324 in our latest update.)
Throughout the summer, Indigenous Americans have suffered losses totalling below 150 in a two-week period only once. The latest period saw 192 Indigenous lives stolen, a painful high-water mark for the summer and the entire series of our dataset, dating back to April 9. The latest two-week count of deaths reflects a 10% increase over the prior period. (Texas does not uniquely collect Indigenous deaths, so its improved reporting did not influence this trend.)
COVID-19 deaths among Pacific Islanders also observed a slight summer decline, but are rebounding from a summer mortality peak that arrived slightly later (June 10-June 23) than other groups. The latest two-week count of deaths reflects a 43% increase over the prior period. (Texas does not uniquely collect Pacific Islander deaths, so its improved reporting did not influence this trend.)
With the exception of Pacific Islanders, the latest two-week period (July 22 through Aug. 4) has yielded more deaths in every race group than the three preceding two-week periods, beginning June 10. Our next forthcoming Color of Coronavirus update, which will reflect data released through Aug. 18, will reveal whether the summer COVID-19 rebound continued with accelerating deaths.
With the school year already begun in many parts of the country or just around the corner in others—introducing countless new avenues for coronavirus exposures—these trends foretell a frightening fall for all Americans.
-Andi (On Twitter: @dataANDInfo)